Bellator 183 - Patricky Freire vs Bendo - San Jose

Tebowned said:
Only thing I like so far. I'm having trouble picking any underdogs/ spots though.

Pitbull finds ways to lose but in a 3 round fight Benson can be so inactive.
Roy may Ko Javvy but he's like 60 years old.
Larkin should beat Daley as I rate Tumenov's striking above daley's minus explosiveness and Larkin was in the fight the whole time. Also did better imo against Lima. Odds are too steep. Bet the over small.
Aaron Pico probably wrestles Jeremy Lin into the ground. The athleticism difference is yuge but not gonna trust an 0-1 guy at -500.
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Ill have o2.5 on the main in parlays. No idea about Ayala vs Nelson. Will also have Larkin in parlays
 
unless larkin fights like a vagina like he inexplicably did for the first 3 rounds against lima, he should destroy daley here.
 
What makes you guys like Picolotti here? It would be hard for me to back either side as a favorite. It will probably be a close fight with a lot of grappling exchanges.
 
Oblivian said:
What makes you guys like Picolotti here? It would be hard for me to back either side as a favorite. It will probably be a close fight with a lot of grappling exchanges.
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Sub or bust for Yamauchi imo and Pico has looked outstanding in basically all grappling exchanges thus far. Never been too impressed with Yamauchi outside of really awesome and aggressive jits. If Pico can keep this standing he should make it pretty clear hes the better striker.
 
man, not sure what to do on ANY of those 5 rights.

(no clue who linn is, obviously i know the other 9)

if i could go back i might've hit some of those dogs on the BOL openers (ayala +250, maybe daley +240, maybe goiti +155)

rare for me to not have any action on the openers for a bellator, let alone a SOLID bellator.. gotta think this one over.
 
i will add there are a couple props i *know* i'll be on, so that'll prevent me from doing much on the present options
 
took some ayala +185. think roy's kinda done. short of ko'ing bigfoot late into rd 2, he should have lost 5 of his last 6 (cause i think rosholt clearly outlanded on him... tho i guess you could argue that he arguably beat lewis, too, but yea)..

also took O1.5 -105. nelson's actually been O1.5 7 straight times.. and i think ayala will be gunshy of nelson's reputation and power...

also took O2.5 -155 goiti-piccolotti. -- this one bigger than the other two combined.. frankly: it's CLEARLY superior to piccolotti's moneyline, imho. a: goiti has never been finished. b: picco doesn't have much power, he is a volume guy who has been able to get some finishes on the ground, which i do NOT see happening here, he's not subbing goiti. likely gonna play this in conjuction with a specific prop later in the week.
 
looks like aaron pico getting smashed, lol. just moved like 500 freakin points on BM and like 90 on dimes (and climbing?)
 
little stabs freire DEC +454 & larkin dec +169

screw it and ayala dec +500 stab..
 
All dogs here besides Larkin. I will admit that I have Pico in a silly parlay too.
 
piglord said:
unless larkin fights like a vagina like he inexplicably did for the first 3 rounds against lima, he should destroy daley here.
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larkin might fight for a decision as daley is still dangerous for all three rounds
 
EzFlyer said:
took some ayala +185. think roy's kinda done. short of ko'ing bigfoot late into rd 2, he should have lost 5 of his last 6 (cause i think rosholt clearly outlanded on him... tho i guess you could argue that he arguably beat lewis, too, but yea)..

also took O1.5 -105. nelson's actually been O1.5 7 straight times.. and i think ayala will be gunshy of nelson's reputation and power...

also took O2.5 -155 goiti-piccolotti. -- this one bigger than the other two combined.. frankly: it's CLEARLY superior to piccolotti's moneyline, imho. a: goiti has never been finished. b: picco doesn't have much power, he is a volume guy who has been able to get some finishes on the ground, which i do NOT see happening here, he's not subbing goiti. likely gonna play this in conjuction with a specific prop later in the week.
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I think I'm with you on Ayala @ +200, after watching some of his fights, as long as he avoids Nelson's right hand, he should win based off volume and activity. He is a lot quicker and I think his gameplan will be to grind Nelson down and take him down.
 
MT6ix said:
I think I'm with you on Ayala @ +200, after watching some of his fights, as long as he avoids Nelson's right hand, he should win based off volume and activity. He is a lot quicker and I think his gameplan will be to grind Nelson down and take him down.
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I'd be all over Ayala if it were that simple. Of course Roy has nothing in the striking these days, but I'm concerned about him being able to control Ayala on the ground. His wrestling has improved., and I trust him to do better in the later rounds.
 
quincy k said:
by not leaving himself open going for a ko.

point fighting. floyd mayweather.
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Could very well lose him the fight. Larkin is far far from a mayweather - That said he's faster, and may just look to kick /wrastle his way to a decision. But standing with Daley for 15 minutes is always a dangerous proposition
 
I'm putting 1u on Pitbull. He has a far better chance of finishing, and I don't think Benson will be able to grapple him till late. I could see him winning the first 3. The lines have been so off in these Pitbull vs. ex-UFC guy fights.

Also playing Goiti for 3u and to win 1u on the over. I can't see Piccolloti finishing, I can't see him wanting to go to the ground unless Goiti is gassed (and I think Picco will gas first), and I think Goiti is more dangerous on the feet.
 
fuckkkkkkkk.

yamauchi NSC was the prop i was waiting for. wanted it to be +money like his moneyline. it's -155 opener.

going goiti +155 ML, then.

so far:

1.5u goiti +155
2.325u goiti-piccolotti O2.5 -155

0.3u larkin dec +169

0.5u freire +190
0.3u freire dec +454

0.5u ayala +185 (wow he got bet a lot it looks like)
0.2u ayala DEC +500
0.525u O1.5 -105

prolly doing a couple other plays, just waiting or spreads and shit.
 
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