Bellator 174 - Budd vs Coenen - Oklahoma

Taking grove -115 and girtz +155

Very short notice for Rhodes, I'm not sure why everyone is coming in so hard on him..

If it was dead even money I would probably go Gonzales, but man it girtz is a Powerhouse wrestler. Gonzales did pretty well against Gilbert Smith but gert's is more explosive.
 
wow. budd getting hammered. coenen +145 and climbing.

and i still don't get how rhodes is the favorite over grove right now.
 
Honestly, I think the public has been wrong on every line. Budd can wrestle and use her physicality vs. Coenen, but can she do it successfully for 5 rounds? Budd isn't very active from the top and refs start to get hasty standing her up. This will just be amplified for a 5 round fight. On top of that, Coenen is better everywhere else and has a good chance to finish if she lands on top.

Rhodes being bet down so much is weird too. He's not a big puncher which is the type of fighter that gives Grove most problems. He's always seemed small for the weight class to me as well. I think Grove can give him problems on the ground and problems standing due to size/reach.

As EZ mentioned, Gonzalez vs. Smith was fairly close. Girtz is faster and better standing than Smith. I think he can land power shots standing and land explosive takedowns avoiding the guillotine.

Tamainglo hasn't really moved, but not sure why. Garcia's best win is Kin Moy in a split decision. Taimanglo has faced much better competition and hasn't been finished since 2008. Garcia's most likely route to victory is a close decision while Taimanglo can win a decision, land something big, or grab his neck.
 
Oblivian said:
Honestly, I think the public has been wrong on every line. Budd can wrestle and use her physicality vs. Coenen, but can she do it successfully for 5 rounds? Budd isn't very active from the top and refs start to get hasty standing her up. This will just be amplified for a 5 round fight. On top of that, Coenen is better everywhere else and has a good chance to finish if she lands on top.

Rhodes being bet down so much is weird too. He's not a big puncher which is the type of fighter that gives Grove most problems. He's always seemed small for the weight class to me as well. I think Grove can give him problems on the ground and problems standing due to size/reach.

As EZ mentioned, Gonzalez vs. Smith was fairly close. Girtz is faster and better standing than Smith. I think he can land power shots standing and land explosive takedowns avoiding the guillotine.

Tamainglo hasn't really moved, but not sure why. Garcia's best win is Kin Moy in a split decision. Taimanglo has faced much better competition and hasn't been finished since 2008. Garcia's most likely route to victory is a close decision while Taimanglo can win a decision, land something big, or grab his neck.
Click to expand...

i'm on board w/you, O

i'm gonna have to play coenen w/this movement (waiting for some props, too).. anyone laying 2:1 on budd is nuts, imo, just play the over. she can't finish shit.

i'm already on grove, girtz, taimanglo
 
Bella 174 Risk: 455
coenen +160: 100 for 160 / budd
grove -115: 115 for 100 / rhodes
girtz +160: 100 for 160.25 / gonzalez
taimanglo -140: 140 for 100 / garcia
---

will wait for props to finalize.

edit: added 50 more to coenen, so 1u now
 
Last edited:
Oblivian said:
Honestly, I think the public has been wrong on every line. .
Click to expand...

Mostly in agreement.
I seen coenen lose in person to that crack headed- looking chick(No offense) otherwise I'd bet more. Budd is physically strong but she's not Meisha Tate and I think she gets armbarred.
Rhodes seemed average to small at 170 imo. This is at 185 against a 6'6 guy on short notice right?
 
Yes, Rhodes always seems small to me as well. He'll look really small against Grove. It was very evident against Thatch in RFA. And yes, Rhodes got submitted by Thatch.
 
Oblivian said:
Honestly, I think the public has been wrong on every line. Budd can wrestle and use her physicality vs. Coenen, but can she do it successfully for 5 rounds? Budd isn't very active from the top and refs start to get hasty standing her up. This will just be amplified for a 5 round fight. On top of that, Coenen is better everywhere else and has a good chance to finish if she lands on top.

Rhodes being bet down so much is weird too. He's not a big puncher which is the type of fighter that gives Grove most problems. He's always seemed small for the weight class to me as well. I think Grove can give him problems on the ground and problems standing due to size/reach.

As EZ mentioned, Gonzalez vs. Smith was fairly close. Girtz is faster and better standing than Smith. I think he can land power shots standing and land explosive takedowns avoiding the guillotine.

Tamainglo hasn't really moved, but not sure why. Garcia's best win is Kin Moy in a split decision. Taimanglo has faced much better competition and hasn't been finished since 2008. Garcia's most likely route to victory is a close decision while Taimanglo can win a decision, land something big, or grab his neck.
Click to expand...

EzFlyer said:
i'm on board w/you, O

i'm gonna have to play coenen w/this movement (waiting for some props, too).. anyone laying 2:1 on budd is nuts, imo, just play the over. she can't finish shit.

i'm already on grove, girtz, taimanglo
Click to expand...
Pretty much agree with all of this
 
1U Coenen @2.50, that's too good to pass on.
 
You guys have swayed me with your arguments on the co-main and main events plus with such significant line movement I can switch sides and end up with great prices. So, playing the line movement, I bet Coenen at +160 after initially betting Budd at -140 and bet Grove at -105 after initially betting Rhodes at +145. On the balance I have Coenen effectively at +180 for $100.00 to win $180.00 and Grove at +154 for $65.00 to win $100.00. Still waiting on props.

Bellator 174 Risk $1030.50

Marloes Coenen (+160) vs Julia Budd $200.00 for $320.00
Julia Budd (-140) vs Marloes Coenen $140.00 for $100.00
Marloes Coenen/Julia Budd Over 2½ (-215) $107.50 for $50.00

Kendall Grove (-105) vs Mike Rhodes $210.00 for $200.00
Mike Rhodes (+145) vs Kendall Grove $100.00 for $145.00
Kendall Grove/Mike Rhodes Over 1½ (-175) $87.50 for $50.00

Brandon Girtz/Fernando Gonzalez Over 1½ (-215) $107.50 for $50.00

Joe Taimanglo/Steve Garcia Jr. Over 2½ (-195) $78.00 for $40.00
 
jim (and others) rather than list it that way, and/or to help you sort out your own action:

if you have 210 for 200 grove and 100 for 145 rhodes, you just need to subtract your potential winnings on grove from your risk on grove and vice versa.

so your risk becomes 210-145 = 65
your winnings become 200-100 = 100

100/65 = 1.54, aka +154 odds on grove

just something i wanted to point out cause i see people list lots of plays on the same fight, you just consolidate your action that way

(to each their own, of course)
 
I thought about this before posting and I like "showing the work" by explaining the net odds and result in the header of my bet listing so I and others know what is at stake on the balance. And also listing both original bets exactingly below in my detailed list of bets for two reasons. One- the bets are often at different sportsbooks so listing each bet separately makes it easier to reference afterwards and add or subtract in my results summary and spreadsheet where I have different columns for different sportsbooks; and Two- so that I don't have to explain like EZ often does with his summarized math, "Where the hell did you get that price"?
 
weird, 6 fights on the main card apparently

wren's fight and lovato jr's fight are both on the main card, apparently

girtz is freakin JACKED as always, but in at 165.6.. 173.9 for gonz? yet they look the exact same size, and girtz looks way stronger

...wait, what the hell? it's just 4 fight main card, still -- no grove-rhodes? no taimanglo-garcia? what the heck is going on
 
Wow, looks like two main card bouts must have gotten cancelled, Grove/Rhodes and Taimanglo/Garcia.
 
Bellator as always is a well-oiled running machine!

So there is 4 matches in main event but 3 matches miss weight.
 
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