Analysis of Alvarez vs McGregor

[GalegoREB]

That's a misconception that a lot of people do, you don't need the outside angle with your feet. It's good to have it, but you don't need it in order to be successful.

the foot positioning gives you the angle

the hand positioning is dynamic and controls lead hand dominance

 

[Universal Kombat]

Alvarez was having success in the opening frame with the legs kicks, really threw McGregor off his groove early. Then he stopped using the leg kicks and got knocked down.

It seems like the same old story in this fight where a shorter guy is fighting a longer guy. Just like with Edgar vs Aldo too; the leg kicks equalize the playing field and they have success with them, but then for some reason when they start getting boxed up they get so hung up on the fact that the guy has a reach advantage that they try to 'prove' they are a 'better' striker by trying to trade hands with the guy who has longer hands? Or because they are thinking so much about the reach, they can only think of doing punching themselves? Smdhtbqhwt onii-fam.

McGregor, like Diaz (or Wonderboy), is very front foot heavy, and the forward lean creates false distance; they are ready to evade and react to any strike, except ones that are below the belt. There is zero reason to not exploit that, you either win out right, or force them to adjust to less familiar tactics, win-win either way.

Trying to fight one of these fighters heads up like that like trying to smack your face into a boulder rolling downhill. McGregor found that in the first Diaz fight (Diaz basically spends all his time doing boxing and jiu-jitsu; every guy who has ever beaten him so far has generally done it by exploiting the holes in his lack of wrestling or kickboxing, rather than smacking their faces into the boulder. Which makes the fact that McGregor managed to take a decision the second time around by basically coming at Diaz head on again a very impressive achievement. Smart game planning? I'd say not really, but sometimes all you have is a hammer, and in his niche he showed that he has a really good hammer [something everyone else needs to game plan around]).

I disagree with the leg kick assesment. The only good leg kick that landed with anything behind it hit conor's shin with Eddie's foot while Conor was moving with that leg just throwing him off balance.

 

[Azam]

I disagree with the leg kick assesment. The only good leg kick that landed with anything behind it hit conor's shin with Eddie's foot while Conor was moving with that leg just throwing him off balance.

It's not Eddie's bread & butter. But it was a good tactic to use. Yeah I think he stopped because his foot hit shin.


If I had been Eddie I'd have taken a slight outside angle if I wanted to throw strikes and the inside angle if I wanted to grapple.

Chad Mendes actually had a lot of success keeping on the inside - waiting for the left hand & using it as a point of entry for grappling by ducking under the left hand. You'd have to judge the range properly though otherwise you'd get clipped. But Mendes managed to while getting clipped.

If I'm khabib I'd be looking at that point of entry especially when Conor has no real answer for it - he can't knee because he too sideways, he can't teep for the same reason. The uppercut might be there but Khabib can get really damn low.

 

[wilddeuces]

I think Eddie froze up tbh.

Mark Henry is supposed to be a good coach. No idea if "hey, let's lead with EXACTLY what Conor wants to counter all night" was really a strategy but I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt.

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/Eddie_Alvarez_Corner_Audio_vs_Conor_McGregor_UFC_205/10154565

This was a recording of Alvarez's corner being recorded during the fight. They gave him some advice but Alvarez, for whatever reason, didn't follow through. I'm not about to judge the corner, but I can safely say that Alvarez would not do whatever #73 means....

 

[n.diazismylife1999]

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/Eddie_Alvarez_Corner_Audio_vs_Conor_McGregor_UFC_205/10154565

This was a recording of Alvarez's corner being recorded during the fight. They gave him some advice but Alvarez, for whatever reason, didn't follow through. I'm not about to judge the corner, but I can safely say that Alvarez would not do whatever #73 means....

I think 73 is the inside leg kick Alvarez was throwing, IIRC they even said "kick 73" or something at one point.

Alvarez stopped throwing it because he hurt his foot on Conor's shin.

 

[NoContest]

I thought 73 was circle left, can't remember which thread I saw it in.

 

[freaky]

Rewatched the fight. Eddie got one good leg kick in the beginning catching Conor as he came in. Then Eddie threw a leg kick withOUT setting up and Conor checked it. That stopped Eddie from throwing any more leg kicks.

Eddie wanted to circle left but Conor has the better angle and continues to cut him off forcing Eddie to go right instead. Conor was controlling the fight the whole time. Eddie couldn't get in at all with his shorter manlet range.

He tried to use kicks but got checked. Can't set up cuz manlet range. He tried to bumrush Conor with flurries but gets caught with that left hand over and over everytime he tries to flurry. He even flurried to the left like how he's suppose to but still got caught.

After that first knock down, Eddie's next move was a take down which easily got stuffed.

So don't tell me Eddie didn't go with game plan of kicking and wrestling. He did and failed. He didn't set up his kicks and scared to use after getting checked. He tried numerous take downs which all got stuffed. He got into the clinch position with Conor's back to the fence a few times but couldn't do anything.

Eddie went left whenever he can but Conor cuts him off immediately. One time Conor forgot and went left but stopped halfway and started circling right again. Conor was the better fighter that night.


Eddie followed his game plan but just wasn't good enough. Stop listening to his excuses.

 

[a guy]

Rewatched the fight. Eddie got one good leg kick in the beginning catching Conor as he came in. Then Eddie threw a leg kick withOUT setting up and Conor checked it. That stopped Eddie from throwing any more leg kicks.

Eddie wanted to circle left but Conor has the better angle and continues to cut him off forcing Eddie to go right instead. Conor was controlling the fight the whole time. Eddie couldn't get in at all with his shorter manlet range.

He tried to use kicks but got checked. Can't set up cuz manlet range. He tried to bumrush Conor with flurries but gets caught with that left hand over and over everytime he tries to flurry. He even flurried to the left like how he's suppose to but still got caught.

After that first knock down, Eddie's next move was a take down which easily got stuffed.

So don't tell me Eddie didn't go with game plan of kicking and wrestling. He did and failed. He didn't set up his kicks and scared to use after getting checked. He tried numerous take downs which all got stuffed. He got into the clinch position with Conor's back to the fence a few times but couldn't do anything.

Eddie went left whenever he can but Conor cuts him off immediately. One time Conor forgot and went left but stopped halfway and started circling right again. Conor was the better fighter that night.


Eddie followed his game plan but just wasn't good enough. Stop listening to his excuses.

Nice post. Eddie didn't behave the way he did because he just felt like it. He was reacting to McGregor and was forced to play into McGregor's game.

 

[Steve08]

Eh, he stopped leg kicking because he was landing with his foot to conors Shin. The inside leg kick is not worth throwing IF you can't place it correctly.

He dropped McGregor to a knee with one of the first kicks he threw.

 

[aries]

I don't think he was ever in a position where he was in trouble though. McG definitely hits harder for sure - but Johnson has a lot more speed/zip to his punches. They also strike very differently - M.Johnson tends to plant his feet & lower himself before throwing - McGregor on the other hand always stands tall whenever he throws those counters or lefts. If Khabib manages to scoot under - something he is imho the best at in mma (transitioning from striking to getting to your hips) - McGregor's habit of standing tall when striking will play to Khabib's strength.

Also the way they strike is radically different - M.Johnson & McGregor. McGregor is a lot longer & narrower with his stance placement - his lead leg is out there along with his lead hand - personally I wouldn't want my lead leg that far out against Khabib especially when he is so good at transitioning to grappling. Also McGregor imho doesn't really have a versatile shot selection either - all he really has is the spinning back kick, the left hand & the uppercut - from a striking perspective I feel he doesn't have the necessary effective shot selection to stop someone like Khabib getting under his hips - if Khabib gets low like he usually does what will he do - uppercut or left hand someone going under his hips? Even his teeps are meh.

Unless Khabib follows the Eddie/Aldo plan of abandoning your strengths/game plans - I don't see him playing to Conor's strengths. I think Conor does such a great job of fucking with people that when they get into the octagon they are overtaken by the occasion - for some fighters they have I don't give a fuck attitude - Nate Diaz is one of them - Ferguson & Khabib also have similar mentalities.

Also last thing - Khabib mainly got hit when he exchanged but let's be clear a lot of those punches didn't hit him 100% - so his judging of striking distance seems to be on point. Also most of the hits he got were during striking exchanges where he stood at range & exchanged - when he was looking to strike & close the distance and transition to grappling he got hit very little in fact I'd say he barely got touched and if I'm McGregor that would be worrying.

Also Khabibs top game is the best I've seen in MMA. It's by no means an easy fight for McGregor - of course McGregor could touch him with that left & take him out. But I feel as though Khabib won't be as stupid as Eddie or Aldo - nor will the occasion get to him.




Tony is a wildcard for sure and he does get hit often - but I think Conor struggles with rangier fighters and Ferguson has reach on him & knows how to use his range well imo. Plus he has a chin on him, seems durable & is a mastermind on the ground. If he goes in & sticks to a game-plan he could give McGregor problems.


At the moment it's hard to judge how good McGregor is imho because apart from Nate, no-one has tested him yet and it's not because they aren't competitive - it's like they lose their composure & leave their brains at the door of the cage.

I think we saw two different things when Khabib got hurt by Johnson. I saw a guy who was shaky on his feet and looked hurt, where someone like McG would smell blood and go in for the kill.
Yes Johnson punches differently but who punches harder? I think unquestionably that is McGregor.

Yes Khabib does get low on his shots and that will help him avoid danger but he'll have to do it from distance as McG is good at keeping range on his opponents. Shooting from a distance makes it more likely that McG reacts in time and stuffs the shot. If like you say Khabib game plans well and sticks to it he'll give McG a really tough test. It really depends if he sticks to just wrestling and he avoids getting into a stand up exchange as much as possible.

 

[n.diazismylife1999]

Rewatched the fight. Eddie got one good leg kick in the beginning catching Conor as he came in. Then Eddie threw a leg kick withOUT setting up and Conor checked it. That stopped Eddie from throwing any more leg kicks.

Eddie wanted to circle left but Conor has the better angle and continues to cut him off forcing Eddie to go right instead. Conor was controlling the fight the whole time. Eddie couldn't get in at all with his shorter manlet range.

He tried to use kicks but got checked. Can't set up cuz manlet range. He tried to bumrush Conor with flurries but gets caught with that left hand over and over everytime he tries to flurry. He even flurried to the left like how he's suppose to but still got caught.

After that first knock down, Eddie's next move was a take down which easily got stuffed.

So don't tell me Eddie didn't go with game plan of kicking and wrestling. He did and failed. He didn't set up his kicks and scared to use after getting checked. He tried numerous take downs which all got stuffed. He got into the clinch position with Conor's back to the fence a few times but couldn't do anything.

Eddie went left whenever he can but Conor cuts him off immediately. One time Conor forgot and went left but stopped halfway and started circling right again. Conor was the better fighter that night.


Eddie followed his game plan but just wasn't good enough. Stop listening to his excuses.

Good analysis.

Also, "just circle left bro" is easier said than done. Lots of people acting like it's the most elementary thing ever, and automagically counters southpaws without any effort.
Maybe if you're fighting a heavy bag...

 

[Latim]

He dropped McGregor to a knee with one of the first kicks he threw.

It still hit shin, henne probably why he threw it less.

 

[rmongler]

That's why its good to get good at the stutter step and kick with the lead leg (if in a mirror match).

You look at RDA vs Diaz, the big difference there is RDA also fights from southpaw, so having the leg turned in like that in the front heavy stance made it easier to swing the trail leg bat. Conor himself took advantage of that in his own rematch.

 

[a guy]

Good analysis.

Also, "just circle left bro" is easier said than done. Lots of people acting like it's the most elementary thing ever, and automagically counters southpaws without any effort.
Maybe if you're fighting a heavy bag...

The funny thing is almost every single one of McGregor's knockouts and knockdowns has come when guys were circling away from his left hand or trying to step outside his lead foot.

 

[n.diazismylife1999]

The funny thing is almost every single one of McGregor's knockouts and knockdowns has come when guys were circling away from his left hand or trying to step outside his lead foot.

Yep. Baits people into doing that, then throws that long left cross straight on the chin.

And as long as you're facing your opponent's center line, it doesn't much matter if he has the lead foot dominance or not.

 

[Azam]

I think we saw two different things when Khabib got hurt by Johnson. I saw a guy who was shaky on his feet and looked hurt, where someone like McG would smell blood and go in for the kill.
Yes Johnson punches differently but who punches harder? I think unquestionably that is McGregor.

Yes Khabib does get low on his shots and that will help him avoid danger but he'll have to do it from distance as McG is good at keeping range on his opponents. Shooting from a distance makes it more likely that McG reacts in time and stuffs the shot. If like you say Khabib game plans well and sticks to it he'll give McG a really tough test. It really depends if he sticks to just wrestling and he avoids getting into a stand up exchange as much as possible.

True McGregor does punch harder but I think M.Johnson is quicker. I don't think Khabib looked that shaky - he did get clipped but I was kind of impressed with his range judgment at least as far as striking goes I thought he'd be a lot worse tbh. A lot of M.Johnsons shots had the umph taken out of them & he was over-reaching with shots to get to Khabib - I think part of the credit goes to Khabib. He might not be great on the feet but he has good judgement as far as distancing goes.

I think he can get low from in range - Mendes managed to do it with McGregor despite giving up a significant reach advantage just like Khabib would be giving up. He just waited for that counter left & got low underneath it - he did get clipped but he also had a lot of success doing it till he gassed out. I think Khabib will do a better job closing that distance without taking as many shots as mendes did - I feel like he's a lot better at closing that distance than people give him credit for. If he just engages in striking then yes Khabib will get mauled - but if he makes use of both striking/grappling to close distance he can really give McGregor problems.

It will be a close fighter and I don't think Khabib like Diaz will be affected by the mental games either. But it would be a close fight and one I'd like to see.

 

[Azam]

Rewatched the fight. Eddie got one good leg kick in the beginning catching Conor as he came in. Then Eddie threw a leg kick withOUT setting up and Conor checked it. That stopped Eddie from throwing any more leg kicks.

Eddie wanted to circle left but Conor has the better angle and continues to cut him off forcing Eddie to go right instead. Conor was controlling the fight the whole time. Eddie couldn't get in at all with his shorter manlet range.

He tried to use kicks but got checked. Can't set up cuz manlet range. He tried to bumrush Conor with flurries but gets caught with that left hand over and over everytime he tries to flurry. He even flurried to the left like how he's suppose to but still got caught.

After that first knock down, Eddie's next move was a take down which easily got stuffed.

So don't tell me Eddie didn't go with game plan of kicking and wrestling. He did and failed. He didn't set up his kicks and scared to use after getting checked. He tried numerous take downs which all got stuffed. He got into the clinch position with Conor's back to the fence a few times but couldn't do anything.

Eddie went left whenever he can but Conor cuts him off immediately. One time Conor forgot and went left but stopped halfway and started circling right again. Conor was the better fighter that night.


Eddie followed his game plan but just wasn't good enough. Stop listening to his excuses.

This is just what I saw:


Conor didn't check that kick. Eddie just doesn't have experience throwing those kind of kicks - his foot hit shin. Anyone who knows how to throw rear inside leg kicks (which is what Eddie threw) - knows that to throw them without hitting shin that you have to do either (a) let him square up either with a kick or straight punch OR (b) take an inside angle so you have the right angle to land it on his thigh. The only reason I know how to do it is years of throwing them & getting my foot smashed and learning from experience although it was kyokushin sparring.

The first time Eddie threw that inside leg kick Conor was squared up - I think he didn't even realize that was what your meant to do.

This is what I hate about some game plans - this idea of doing something effective rather than building a plan based around your strengths. Lots of fighters I see fall into that trap.

Again nothing to do with his manlet range but simply because he doesn't have the experience throwing that technique (i.e. why you should stick to strengths).

Eddie never really managed to get an outside angle - Conor didn't let him have it which is what usually happens. You have to fight to get it not just expect to get it given to you.


The first knockdown he closes distance easily - his fault there is not transitioning to grappling but staying up, then to top it off a poor shot selection/position that eliminates all his tools except that lead - Conor does a great job of smacking him with that left. Eddie did all the work for Conor there.

After that it's downhill.

Attempts blitzing straight down the pipe - gets smacked again. Doesn't really take any kind of angle - it's straight down the pipe. Again he gets into close range pretty easily - he just says with striking rather than transition.

After that it's the small man conundrum - he does the worst thing you can as the man with a significant reach disadvantage. He stops trying to close the distance and decides to trade at range where he gets picked off - leading to the second knockdown. Clearly wobbling when he gets back to his feet - tries a takedown off the cage - no setup, too dazed to be doing that - Conor easily defends & turns him round lands lovely elbow.

Again doesn't close distance gets picked off from range. What's worse whenever he gets hit he keeps resetting.

Another takedown attempt with no setup.


NOW: he has a bit of success with striking when he gets an outside angle & closes distance - he lands on Conor & backs him up. It's short lived though because he gets wild & reckless and gets countered with a left - Conor does a good job of adjusting take a slight inside angle but Eddie does half his job again for him - after his reckless hooks put him in a even worse position with his back towards Conor. Knockdown.

Another attempt to clinch goes wrong - Conor easily handles him. Then back to the small man conundrum and he gets picked off & finished.


So yes Eddie's game plan of using wrestling was non-existent - hell even his shot selection when it mattered was poor. His attempts to make use of grappling came after knockdowns or with his back to the cage. Even his shot selection while striking meant that he had his back to Conor more than once & got lit up on both occasions. Conor was the better fighter that night - but by no means was what Eddie did a part of any game plan.

Unless his corner are stupid but I don't think they are.

 

[n.diazismylife1999]

This is just what I saw:


Conor didn't check that kick. .

 

[Azam]

^^^^

I don't think that was an intended check. Usually you don't lift or move your rear foot back when you check - you just lift up the leg getting kicked. I don't know what McGregor was trying to do there maybe getting read to cock that left hand - it incidentally turned into an unintended check though.

When you're lead leg is internally rotated like McGregor - you don't even need to lift the leg up to check - because you'll hit shin regardless if you throw an inside leg kick from where Alvarez is.

That gif also demonstrates why you take an inside angle on a rear inside low kick like I said above. And why you should stick to your strengths when you game plan.


EDIT: Also this was not the leg kick either Freaky or myself were referring to - we were talking about the inside leg kick at the beginning of the round - this seems to be towards the end of the round.

Read my post again.

 

[n.diazismylife1999]

I don't think that was an intended check. Usually you don't lift or move your rear foot back when you check - you just lift up the leg getting kicked. I don't know what McGregor was trying to do there maybe getting read to cock that left hand - it incidentally turned into an unintended check though.

When you're lead leg is internally rotated like McGregor - you don't even need to lift the leg up to check - because you'll hit shin regardless if you throw an inside leg kick from where Alvarez is.

That gif also demonstrates why you take an inside angle on a rear inside low kick like I said above. And why you should stick to your strengths when you game plan.


EDIT: Also this was not the leg kick either Freaky or myself were referring to - we were talking about the inside leg kick at the beginning of the round - this seems to be towards the end of the round.

Read my post again.

That was definitely an intended check.