Age Statistics by Division (2013 vs. 2018)

[Fluffernutter]

People get into MMA after their original sport comes to a conclusion for them.

 

[acannxr]

Thanks.

I did some quick calcs (using 31 and over versus under 31) for a few weight classes. I also wanted to see if the tiny sample size (i.e. only the top 15) was skewing things.

My take-away from this (and even with Top 30 it's still a fairly small sample size that can be skewed easily by just a fighter or two) is that things haven't significantly changed. Looking at just the Top 15 and yes things look like there's been changes since 5 years ago, but expand the sample size out to the Top 30 and things have hardly changed.

As for how easily things get skewed with such small sample sizes, take Rory who was ranked #9 (5 years ago) at only 23 years old, compared to a 40 year old (today) Demain Maia that's ranked #6. If you get one person to drop out of the Top 15 (or 30) that is replaced by someone 17 years older/younger, and that alone can skew the average 1.13 (for Top 15) and .57 (for Top 30).

I do think that the quality of competition has improved over the last 5 years and IMO I think that plays a part in why there might be less young guys getting up into the top ranks (not only talent but lack of sufficient number of fights - whereas you could be ranked with a handful of good wins years ago, now it's not unheard of to take 20+ fights). 5 years ago Askren was ranked (#8) with only 10 fights and Woodley (ranked #15) had 11, whereas now you've got Covington with 14, Usman with 13, Till with 17. Hell, five years ago Maia was ranked #4 and Marquardt was ranked #12, with each only having had 2 WW fights. Now days Cerrone is ranked with 8 WW fights while Masvidal has had 10.

[Fun fact, BJ Penn's pro debut was in the UFC. - Other than CM Punk how often does that happen?]

5 years ago Hathaway was ranked #29 and had had 10 fights (10-0 with 8 finishes) before making it into the UFC. Today #29 ranked Cummings had to have 18 fights (15-3 with 12 finishes) before making it into the UFC.

As time has gone on, it's just not as easy to break into the top rankings. GSP's 6th fight was in the UFC, while Woodley didn't make it to the big show until his 12th.

Interesting stuff, but ultimately I think it boils down to just not enough data to really formulate a solid conclusion.

I appreciate the effort, though I wouldn't say that things haven't changed significantly. And your data isn't evaluated under precisely the same conditions as you've included fighters who were 30 years old into the same group of 20-29 year old fighters (I edited my original post to prevent future misinterpretation).

+1.7 average age | Heavyweight
+0.4 average age | Light Heavyweight
+1.2 average age | Middleweight
+0.9 average age | Welterweight
+0.9 average age | Lightweight
+0.7 average age | Featherweight
-1.5 average age | Bantamweight
-0.1 average age | Flyweight

Roughly 2/3 of the Heavyweight rankings have different fighters in the top 15 today than five years ago, but over half of today's top 15 are fighters older than 35 who were ranked in the top 30 back in 2013, which is why the average age has gone up, not enough influx of new younger talent.

Meanwhile, 12 of the 15 Bantamweights today are new fighters, which is why their average age and % of fighters under 30 have improved.

I agree that ultimately the sample sizes limit how much we can infer, though it's self-evident that the heavier divisions (HW, LHW, MW) aren't getting enough influx of younger talent; this is either a reflection of the UFC's recruiting habits or there's less athletes of that size starting careers in MMA.