I bet a lot of money on Tito to win. The past couple of days, just for fun, I have rewatched all 29 of Chuck's career fights (yes, even the ones against Kenneth Williams and Steve Heath outside of UFC/PRIDE) starting with his debut against Noe Hernandez and ending with Rich Franklin.
It was both enlightening and nostalgic, and there were many things I picked up on.
For one, I didn't realize it as much at the time, but Tito Ortiz had a substantially better performance in the second fight against Chuck than the first. It's only 2 years difference, from 2004 to 2006, but Chuck is already slower in terms of reactions, movement, and handspeed. In the first fight, Chuck absolutely dominates Tito in every way imaginable, a completely one-sided beating. In the rematch, Tito is landing multiple leg kicks and some clean connects to the face, and briefly takes Chuck down when Liddell is a little slow in transitioning from a sprawl.
Even in the fight-ending KO sequence, Chuck starts with two shots that are blocked, being wide-open, and Tito hits him with a clean right hand counter that has Chuck momentarily stunned. Now Tito lacked punching power, and he foolishly didn't follow up that connect immediately, continuing his self-defeating fight strategy of only throwing one punch at a time.
That brief lapse allowed Chuck to respond with a barrage of punches, and by the time Tito started punching back himself, it was too late.
Still, Tito did a hell of a lot better than anyone who had seen him be embarrassed and decimated back in 2004 would have predicted. (Eddie Bravo even gave the second round to Tito, which is defensible)
Nowadays? Miracles can happen, of course, but Tito should be an overwhelming favorite.