Tony has been in so many wars too. Khabib hasnt really been in one. I'm sure Khabib wont fold under pressure. He's really really tough but I agree with your breakdown. Tony will weaponize his cardio and will be a threat on the bottom.I do believe that Khabib will maul him for the first couple of rounds.
However, if Tony makes it out of that without too much damage, I expect the fight to get MUCH more interesting in the latter half.
Khabib has a good gas tank from what we've seen, But Cucuy has a fantastic one.
Dude never tires out. He just keeps coming like a zombie. And his elbows, even off his back, are next level. I could see him being the first guy to possibly make Khabib bleed, as the fight drags on.
Except when he loses.Tony wins and finds the bloodiest way to do it, every fight
RDA kept Khabib in his guard and still lost the rounds because he was incapable of doing anything offensively. If Tony tries to be aggressive from his guard, he's going to get passed and if he tries to be purely defensive, he's going to lose rounds by Khabib dominating from the top. Going to the ground with Khabib is a lose-lose scenario for Tony, especially since Khabib is a master of delivering GnP from safe positions and will know how not to get caught by elbows from the bottom.The fight will come down if Tony can keep Khabib in guard. If he cannot he will lose.