BJJ Scout:Khabib vs Kevin Lee/Poirier

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MMACroatia

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Don't know if it was posted already,but for those who didn't see it here it is.
Very good stuff as usual.WAR EAGLE
 
Khabib wins it all.

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Yeah he’s right.

Kevin has nothing for Khabib’s grappling.

But if they want to feed a guy on a one fight win streak to Khabib. I’ll want this guy get beaten to hell and back. Watching his stomping temper tantrum after losing to Tony was pretty hilarious.
 
Spacelord13 said:
Yeah he’s right.

Kevin has nothing for Khabib’s grappling.

But if they want to feed a guy on a one fight win streak to Khabib. I’ll want this guy get beaten to hell and back. Watching his stomping temper tantrum after losing to Tony was pretty hilarious.
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I think Lee would be a challenge at start while he is strong and fresh,later with more grappling and Khabib's advantage in it he takes over.
 
Khabib will maul Lee. Fergusson is the most dangerous opponent for him. I think khabib will beat whoever he faces at LW. WW is where the really tough fights for him are.
 
Eddie Alvarez:
42% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense (SD). Only 1 KO in the UFC. 28% TD success with 93% TDD.
So, Eddie Alvarez is very similar to Al Iaquinta. Except, Eddie has a higher TD defense (93% vs 77%). But if you look at Eddie's UFC record, most of the fighters he fought prefer to strike while standing. So, the high TDD is a little misleading.

Also, most of Eddie's striking success is while standing. This tells me that he is more comfortable fighting on his feet. The threat of Khabib's TD will mess up his already average striking. Eddie will be be taken down and smashed just like Al was. I think it will be even worse, because Eddie is slow starter.

Dustin Poirier:
50% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense. 7 KO's in the UFC. Most of the people he KO'd are fighters who like to strike on their feet. He has been KO'd twice. He has quit once. He has 41% TD success with 67% TDD.

Khabib has attempted almost twice as many TD's as Dustin (109 vs 58) with more success (45% vs 41%). Also, Khabib has 85% TDD vs Dustin's 67%. Dustin's most successful strikes has been while standing up.

This tells me that Dustin prefers to stay on his feet, while Khabib prefers to take the fight off-the-feet. With Dustin's poor TDD, he will be takedown and smashed to bits. He has quit once, and I won't be surprised if he quits again.

However, the man has 7 KO's in the UFC. He has thrown almost 2x as many strikes as Khabib (2187 vs 1204) with slightly better accuracy (50% vs 49%). But, Khabib has 70% striking accuracy, which is relatively high for UFC fighters. So, Dustin has a puncher's chance.

Kevin Lee:
45% striking accuracy and 52% SD. He has KO/TKO's 2 opponents, and he has been KO/TKO'd once. His striking is almost evenly distributed between standing and grounding (48% vs 41%). He has attempted 75 TD with 43% accuracy, and he has 75% TD.

I would say that he is a better striker than Eddie Alvarez (in the context of every single legal strike that is allowed in MMA. Don't troll me if you don't get this. LOL). But, he is not as good as Dustin Poirier, who throws more, hits more, and gets hit less, and has KO/TKO'd more opponents.

So, Kevin Lee has an even lower puncher's chance of KO/TKO'ing Khabib than Dustin Poirier. Moreover, with Kevin Lee's 52% striking defense, Khabib has a bigger puncher's chance of KO'ing Kevin Lee than Kevin Lee has of doing the same to Khabib. Khabib has 70% striking defense, 49% accuracy and has KO/TKO'd 2 opponents.

Also, the chances of a TD between Khabib vs Kevin Lee favors Khabib, who has 85% TTD (vs 75%) and 45% TD success (vs 43%) and he has attempted more TD's than Kevin Lee. So, Khabib is the better striker and grappler and probably wins the fight. But, I don't think it will be a mauling.

I am surprised that Dustin Poirier turns out to be the better matchup for Khabib. He is a better striker than both Kevin Lee and Eddie Alvarez. He is more likely to TD Khabib than both Lee and Alvarez. Although, it seems like Alvarez is more likely to stay on his feet with his 93% TD defense (I honestly believe this number is so high, because most of his opponents have not attempted, but the same can be said for Khabib).

This is why looking at the numbers is important. I had a personal bias against Dustin Poirier, but after looking at the numbers, I have to put that bias aside and admit on paper he is the most likely to succeed against Khabib (even though I don't like his intangibles).

Interesting exercise. LOL
 
Franc Mittelo said:
Eddie Alvarez:
42% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense (SD). Only 1 KO in the UFC. 28% TD success with 93% TDD.
So, Eddie Alvarez is very similar to Al Iaquinta. Except, Eddie has a higher TD defense (93% vs 77%). But if you look at Eddie's UFC record, most of the fighters he fought prefer to strike while standing. So, the high TDD is a little misleading.

Also, most of Eddie's striking success is while standing. This tells me that he is more comfortable fighting on his feet. The threat of Khabib's TD will mess up his already average striking. Eddie will be be taken down and smashed just like Al was. I think it will be even worse, because Eddie is slow starter.

Dustin Poirier:
50% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense. 7 KO's in the UFC. Most of the people he KO'd are fighters who like to strike on their feet. He has been KO'd twice. He has quit once. He has 41% TD success with 67% TDD.

Khabib has attempted almost twice as many TD's as Dustin (109 vs 58) with more success (45% vs 41%). Also, Khabib has 85% TDD vs Dustin's 67%. Dustin's most successful strikes has been while standing up.

This tells me that Dustin prefers to stay on his feet, while Khabib prefers to take the fight off-the-feet. With Dustin's poor TDD, he will be takedown and smashed to bits. He has quit once, and I won't be surprised if he quits again.

However, the man has 7 KO's in the UFC. He has thrown almost 2x as many strikes as Khabib (2187 vs 1204) with slightly better accuracy (50% vs 49%). But, Khabib has 70% striking accuracy, which is relatively high for UFC fighters. So, Dustin has a puncher's chance.

Kevin Lee:
45% striking accuracy and 52% SD. He has KO/TKO's 2 opponents, and he has been KO/TKO'd once. His striking is almost evenly distributed between standing and grounding (48% vs 41%). He has attempted 75 TD with 43% accuracy, and he has 75% TD.

I would say that he is a better striker than Eddie Alvarez (in the context of every single legal strike that is allowed in MMA. Don't troll me if you don't get this. LOL). But, he is not as good as Dustin Poirier, who throws more, hits more, and gets hit less, and has KO/TKO'd more opponents.

So, Kevin Lee has an even lower puncher's chance of KO/TKO'ing Khabib than Dustin Poirier. Moreover, with Kevin Lee's 52% striking defense, Khabib has a bigger puncher's chance of KO'ing Kevin Lee than Kevin Lee has of doing the same to Khabib. Khabib has 70% striking defense, 49% accuracy and has KO/TKO'd 2 opponents.

Also, the chances of a TD between Khabib vs Kevin Lee favors Khabib, who has 85% TTD (vs 75%) and 45% TD success (vs 43%) and he has attempted more TD's than Kevin Lee. So, Khabib is the better striker and grappler and probably wins the fight. But, I don't think it will be a mauling.

I am surprised that Dustin Poirier turns out to be the better matchup for Khabib. He is a better striker than both Kevin Lee and Eddie Alvarez. He is more likely to TD Khabib than both Lee and Alvarez. Although, it seems like Alvarez is more likely to stay on his feet with his 93% TD defense (I honestly believe this number is so high, because most of his opponents have not attempted, but the same can be said for Khabib).

This is why looking at the numbers is important. I had a personal bias against Dustin Poirier, but after looking at the numbers, I have to put that bias aside and admit on paper he is the most likely to succeed against Khabib (even though I don't like his intangibles).

Interesting exercise. LOL
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Great post!
 
I don’t know...

You just scratched the surface with numbers there.
 
tenniswhiz said:
I don’t know...

You just scratched the surface with numbers there.
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If this was addressed at me, you are 100% right. Look at how long the post was with me just "scratching the surface with numbers." I could have gone longer with my own personal bias about each fighter's intangibles.

That will easily be a 1500 to 3000 words essay that most people will not bother reading. I did my best backing my opinion with facts.

Now, it is up to whoever is interested to ask intelligent questions, so I can either expand on my ideas or reexamine them, and make changes based on new and better evidence. This is how productive discussions can be had.
 
Franc Mittelo said:
If this was addressed at me, you are 100% right. Look at how long the post was with me just "scratching the surface with numbers." I could have gone longer with my own personal bias about each fighter's intangibles.

That will easily be a 1500 to 3000 words essay that most people will not bother reading. I did my best backing my opinion with facts.

Now, it is up to whoever is interested to ask intelligent questions, so I can either expand on my ideas or reexamine them, and make changes based on new and better evidence. This is how productive discussions can be had.
Click to expand...

That’s why I don’t even bother starting threads. To do it properly on alot of subjects, requires actual time and a healthy amount of words to relay the point. Especially if you have to use examples or numbers to really get the point across.

All it gets you most times is Shertards with tl;dr. Even if you tell them to begin with that it’s a lengthy read and cliffs are impractical.

Good job, though.
 
Spacelord13 said:
That’s why I don’t even bother starting threads. To do it properly on alot of subjects, requires actual time and a healthy amount of words to relay the point. Especially if you have to use examples or numbers to really get the point across.

All it gets you most times is Shertards with tl;dr. Even if you tell them to begin with that it’s a lengthy read and cliffs are impractical.

Good job, though.
Click to expand...
The paradox of forum discussions. Most members don't have the brain power to read for more than 30 seconds and comprehend what they read.

But when you try to keep your point short, they are unable to read between the lines, connect the dots, and ask for clarification and/or confirmation.

Instead, they jump straight into childish name calling, because they lack the capacity to connect the dots, and to ask for further information when the dots don't connect in their heads. It can be frustrating. LOL
 
Franc Mittelo said:
The paradox of forum discussions. Most members don't have the brain power to read for more than 30 seconds and comprehend what they read.

But when you try to keep your point short, they are unable to read between the lines, connect the dots, and ask for clarification and/or confirmation.

Instead, they jump straight into childish name calling, because they lack the capacity to connect the dots, and to ask for further information when the dots don't connect in their heads. It can be frustrating. LOL
Click to expand...
Hey, shorten that shit up asshole
 
Franc Mittelo said:
Eddie Alvarez:
42% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense (SD). Only 1 KO in the UFC. 28% TD success with 93% TDD.
So, Eddie Alvarez is very similar to Al Iaquinta. Except, Eddie has a higher TD defense (93% vs 77%). But if you look at Eddie's UFC record, most of the fighters he fought prefer to strike while standing. So, the high TDD is a little misleading.

Also, most of Eddie's striking success is while standing. This tells me that he is more comfortable fighting on his feet. The threat of Khabib's TD will mess up his already average striking. Eddie will be be taken down and smashed just like Al was. I think it will be even worse, because Eddie is slow starter.

Dustin Poirier:
50% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense. 7 KO's in the UFC. Most of the people he KO'd are fighters who like to strike on their feet. He has been KO'd twice. He has quit once. He has 41% TD success with 67% TDD.

Khabib has attempted almost twice as many TD's as Dustin (109 vs 58) with more success (45% vs 41%). Also, Khabib has 85% TDD vs Dustin's 67%. Dustin's most successful strikes has been while standing up.

This tells me that Dustin prefers to stay on his feet, while Khabib prefers to take the fight off-the-feet. With Dustin's poor TDD, he will be takedown and smashed to bits. He has quit once, and I won't be surprised if he quits again.

However, the man has 7 KO's in the UFC. He has thrown almost 2x as many strikes as Khabib (2187 vs 1204) with slightly better accuracy (50% vs 49%). But, Khabib has 70% striking accuracy, which is relatively high for UFC fighters. So, Dustin has a puncher's chance.

Kevin Lee:
45% striking accuracy and 52% SD. He has KO/TKO's 2 opponents, and he has been KO/TKO'd once. His striking is almost evenly distributed between standing and grounding (48% vs 41%). He has attempted 75 TD with 43% accuracy, and he has 75% TD.

I would say that he is a better striker than Eddie Alvarez (in the context of every single legal strike that is allowed in MMA. Don't troll me if you don't get this. LOL). But, he is not as good as Dustin Poirier, who throws more, hits more, and gets hit less, and has KO/TKO'd more opponents.

So, Kevin Lee has an even lower puncher's chance of KO/TKO'ing Khabib than Dustin Poirier. Moreover, with Kevin Lee's 52% striking defense, Khabib has a bigger puncher's chance of KO'ing Kevin Lee than Kevin Lee has of doing the same to Khabib. Khabib has 70% striking defense, 49% accuracy and has KO/TKO'd 2 opponents.

Also, the chances of a TD between Khabib vs Kevin Lee favors Khabib, who has 85% TTD (vs 75%) and 45% TD success (vs 43%) and he has attempted more TD's than Kevin Lee. So, Khabib is the better striker and grappler and probably wins the fight. But, I don't think it will be a mauling.

I am surprised that Dustin Poirier turns out to be the better matchup for Khabib. He is a better striker than both Kevin Lee and Eddie Alvarez. He is more likely to TD Khabib than both Lee and Alvarez. Although, it seems like Alvarez is more likely to stay on his feet with his 93% TD defense (I honestly believe this number is so high, because most of his opponents have not attempted, but the same can be said for Khabib).

This is why looking at the numbers is important. I had a personal bias against Dustin Poirier, but after looking at the numbers, I have to put that bias aside and admit on paper he is the most likely to succeed against Khabib (even though I don't like his intangibles).

Interesting exercise. LOL
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Dustin Quit? Did you want him to keep fighting after eating 2 illegal knee that sent him to queer street and he wasn't going to recover from? And the second knee was not only a knee to a blatantly down opponent it was to the back of the head.

Alvarez against McGregor and Lee against Ferguson were better examples of fighters looking for ways out.
 
Good video.
But Lee improved a lot since Al fight.
Enough of feeding Khabib strikers, we need him vs Lee or Ferguson as a real test!
 
This guy is usually better.Why does he keep bringing up the Iaquinta fight,that was Lee's 1st ufc fight iirc and has had more fights since then than Khabib's entire ufc career.I quit halfway through,stupid shit.Even his other points were getting biased at times.
 
MMACroatia said:
Don't know if it was posted already,but for those who didn't see it here it is.
Very good stuff as usual.WAR EAGLE
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One of the weaker BJJScout videos. Kevin has a huge reach advantage over Khabib(77" vs 70") and the fight with Al was his first fight in the UFC. Lee will be standing farther away then Al, so defending Khabib's shots will be easier. He won't have to resort to hands down and head movement to avoid a low single, thus opening him up for the jab. I be much more fearful about Lee's chin holding up to a big shot.
Early on (first two rounds) how the fight looks will be decided by who pressures who in the fight. It isn't a given that Khabib will back Lee into the fence. Al pressured Khabib for most of the fight, so he didn't use his usual pressure, throw hands, get the underhook and takedown strategy. He shot low singles instead. Later the fight will be decided by whose cardio holds up better.
That said, BJJScout said little of Khabib's takedown defense. I believe Lee will get takedowns. If he can hold down Khabib is another question.. If he can, how will Khabib's cardio hold up when he is the nail and not the hammer? It is hard to judge the strength of Khabib's guard(since we've seen so little of it), compared to someone like Ferguson. But a fresh Lee did very well against Tony on the ground.
 
Franc Mittelo said:
The paradox of forum discussions. Most members don't have the brain power to read for more than 30 seconds and comprehend what they read.

But when you try to keep your point short, they are unable to read between the lines, connect the dots, and ask for clarification and/or confirmation.

Instead, they jump straight into childish name calling, because they lack the capacity to connect the dots, and to ask for further information when the dots don't connect in their heads. It can be frustrating. LOL
Click to expand...

8a2.gif
 
MMACroatia said:
Don't know if it was posted already,but for those who didn't see it here it is.
Very good stuff as usual.WAR EAGLE
Click to expand...



One thing...Lee did not stop barboza...sorry, but a dr. stoppage does not count. The fight was not stopped based on anything lee was doing...the fight was stopped cause the dr. didn't like how barboza's eye looked...that is not the same as the ref stopping the fight cause of something the other fighter was doing...

That's like saying fedor was stopped in his only loss, back in his prime...that was a drs. stoppage as well...that didn't count either.
 
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