Jon Jones' likely suspension scenarios with odds

[The Highlight]

Broken down for all of you..... whether you are a fan of his or a hater, there's no denying his talent. I for one think he would still be #1 without taking anything, but that's just me and it will always be up for speculation.

Full article here:
Why Jon Jones probably isn’t getting a 4-year suspension
Iain Kidd breaks down exactly what suspension length Jon Jones is facing and how likely each potential punishment actually is.

No suspension due to no fault
less than 1%

6-month suspension due to reduced fault
less than 10%

8-month to 1-year suspension due to reduced fault
around 35%

Between a 1- and 3-year suspension due to reduced fault
around 35%

4-year suspension with no discount
around 20%

Any other suspension length due to becoming an informant for USADA (snitch)
around 1%

Taking everything into consideration and how hard Jones will fight this, I'd expect a suspension anywhere from 8 months to 2 years.

 

[Yari]

Cool. But he's still a cheater.

 

[accolyte1022]

If you think you're the first person to make a thread.... you're not.

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

I'm still going with around 2-4 years. Cheat and get caught. Got to do the time.

 

[scardera]

wtf is this garbage stats shit? he got suspended 2 years for his first offense wont get suspended less that that for his second offense that make no sense

 

[billharford]

wow, might only be a year before we get to see him cheating in another fight

 

[GOD...frey Jones]

I'll take the odds on the snitch option. Seems like his character.

 

[HaulParris]

Maybe they can time Jobes’ suspension just right, to give Bork Lazer time to come back, serve his suspension, reenter the USADA pool, and have them fight each other at UFC 342.

 

[Captain Herb]

That adds up to 102%. But 1-3 years is a virtual lock. Should be:

10% Less than 1 year
70% 1-3 years
20% 4 years

 

[Benjamin Burton]

Part of the problem is that outsiders have very limited access to info about test failures; results aren’t released, USADA very rarely gives detailed reasoning on their decision making process, and evidence of potentially mitigating factors is usually kept private.

before telling us the percentages he even admits he doesnt know what the fuck hes talking about.

usada has an obligation to protect non roiders from asshole cheaters like jones. 4 years is a must.

 

[KB Warrior]

18 months is my prediction

 

[waldywaldy]

*

 

[The Pied Pooper]

This is the only form of punishment that I will be satisfied with:

 

[FedorRoks]

Cool. But he's still a cheater.

Yeah.

Josh Barnett was still fighting recently, and is a good fighter, but he's still a guy who got busted multiple times for PED's.

Nothing can save Jones' career or reputation now, regardless of how soon he returns. That doesn't effect anything.

He's Brock/Overeem/Barnett/Cyborg now. Heck of a fighter, an attraction, but forever tainted with the PED asterisk.

 

[FlyingKimurabar]

Reduced fault? Isn't his excuse that someone slipped him the drugs? lmao he will not get reduced fault.

He's getting 2 years minimum, maybe 4.

I'd go with 2 years 75%, 4 years 25%

 

[r-harper-1]

I don't think he should get anything because I enjoy watching him fight

 

[leatherneck]

dumbest "odds" ive ever seen...


author cites the following:

less than1%
less than1%
around 35%
around 20%
around 35%
less than 10%

as if somehow "less than" is noticeably different than "around"

 

[GSP1978]

dumbest "odds" ive ever seen...


author cites the following:

less than1%
less than1%
around 35%
around 20%
around 35%
less than 10%

as if somehow "less than" is noticeably different than "around"

He doesn’t understand statistical probability. He’s randomly assigning percentages. That’s called guessing.

It’s no different than saying I predict a 49 percent chance that someone will be injured before UFC 217 and will have to withdraw. I’m not going to base that on the number of fighters on the card, or the past number of fighters who have withdrawn from fights due to injuries in the last five years. I’m just going to say 49 percent in an attempt to sound intelligent.

 

[elwani]

Jon Jones: ‘I was always the kid that snitched’

“I’ve always been a person who tries to do the right thing in life, for the most part,” said Jones. “I’m no angel, but I was always the kid who snitched on the kids who had pot. I don’t want to offend the pot smokers out there, but I was kind of just a snitch. I was just down for people doing the right thing. My parents kind of raised me to be a good guy. I’ve always been down for the good side, I guess.”

http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2009/12/04/jon-jones-i-was-always-the-kid-that-snitched/

Jackson's gym must be on edge right now.

 

[Danespina]

2 year suspension is most likely. 60%.