People forget that the first three rounds of DC v Jones was pretty competitive. Jones really pulled away in 4&5. I just re-watched the fight and was surprised that my recollection didn't match reality. At one point in the 3rd round they were dead even in terms of strikes. The fact that Jones won 50-45 on two score cards doesn't really tell the whole story as 1-3 were very close. I'd say DC took round two in a close one, JJ 3, and one was sort of up for grabs but maybe edge to Jon for the takedown.
With that said - it seems they were pretty even for 3 rounds a few years ago, but a few years forward I think intangibles line up well for Jon. He has had a break and a chance to put some space between himself and the controversies, presumably, he is sober now, and he is entering his prime where as DC is exiting his. Not to mention the physical intangibles of a huge height and reach difference. I'd say the two intangibles favoring DC are increased experience & activity as well as losing the way he did highlight the areas he needs to improve on to win. The flip side of that, JJ as the winner can only guess as to what he might need to improve upon to ensure DC doesn't catch him stagnant.
All that being said - I expect JJ to win this fight and possibly finish.
Unrelated - I hit a parlay on Rivera, Cummins, and Weidman to win $460. I've already but $60 on a 6 fighter for this weekend:
Biggest risk here?
- Alexandra Albu
- Renan Barao (Underdog)
- Lamas
- Jimmi
- Woodley
- Jones
