- Joined
- Mar 27, 2016
- Messages
- 1,416
- Reaction score
- 323
Performance Review of Model, historical:
1. Correctly picks winner in 77% (96/125) of bouts;
2. Generates an average profit margin of 19% for all bets;
3a. Generates profitable bet spreads for 79% of events;
3b. Generates unprofitable bet spreads for 21% of events.
Performance Review of Model, UFC: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
1. Correctly picked winner in 75% (6/8) of bouts;
2. Generated a profit of 1%
Notes:
1. The model gives Weidman a mere 18% chance of victory. My intuition insists this is wrong, but I've learned with time to favor algorithms over intuition.
As a Weidman fan, I almost hope it is wrong. It's possible that the model is underestimating the significance of his size advantage.
2. The model ardently disagrees with oddsmakers concerning the win probability of Anders over Natal.
The model gives Anders an 80% chance of victory; oddsmakers give him a 52% chance of victory.
One explanatory factor is that Anders is a late replacement, but the algorithm doesn't account for this disadvantage.
LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Burgos @ 88%.