I feel like wonderboy has more ways to make adjustments and learn or improve from the last fight than woodley has.
I had the same feeling when i predicted Conor could beat Nate in the rematch; Diaz is very good at what he does, but what he does is a few certain things, and he always fights the same way against pretty much everyone, for good or ill.
That's basically how i see woodley right now. Some say he could take thompson down, and that might very well be true, but i don't think he'll try to take him down. He's in love with his hands, and i think he's going to try and box with wonderboy first, look to land a big bomb like last time; and if he does try, he's going to get out struck.
If he starts getting out struck, then he might try and look for the take-down, but because he would have been spending more of his training camp on a boxing heavy strategy rather than a TD first strategy, the wrestling would not be as sharp, and would not be as successful as it might have been otherwise.
Nicholas Taleb defined anti-fragility basically as things that have more 'upside' than 'downside'; it's not a sure thing, but right now i see thompson as having the higher potential upside.