Why is Bam Bam +265 against Covington?

Conor McGregoat

Orange Belt
@Orange
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What am I missing? Bryan clearly has better striking, slightly worse wresting, better chin, and better cardio. I need the sherdog expert analysis.
 
Because Covington stylistically could/should wrestle fuck and outwork Barberena. Bam Bam is a tough guy to count out though.
 
Covington should have better wrestling, but this is one of few times he faces a guy as big and strong as himself. Barberena should not be that big of an underdog for my account.
 
Because Barberena was never Dana's friend.
 
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