Deeper analysis: on the whole "I deserve equity" claim - LONG POST!

The Natural Born Runner

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So McGregor wanting/deserving equity stake in the UFC, here's my opinion on why he doesn't deserve it.

Let's just deal with the 2 major factors Gate and PPV buys.

PPV:


PPV events with Conor McGregor starring:

UFC 189: 825,000 buys
UFC 194: 1,025,000 buys
UFC 196: 1,600,000 buys
UFC 202: 1,650,000 buys
UFC 205: 1,700,000 buys

PPV events since McGregor's PPV debut, which do not star him:

UFC 190: 900,000 buys
UFC 191: 115,000 buys
UFC 192: 250,000 buys
UFC 193: 1,100,000 buys
UFC 195: 300,000 buys
UFC 197: 425,000 buys
UFC 198: 350,000 buys
UFC 199: 320,000 buys
UFC 200: 1,200,000 buys
UFC 201: 240,000 buys
UFC 203: 260,000 buys (estimated not collated yet)
UFC 204: 290,000 buys (estimated not collated yet)
UFC 206: TBA
UFC 207: TBA (with Ronda likely to be upward of a million)

Summary:

Conor McGregor PPV: 6,800,000
PPV without McGregor: 5,750,000

So Conor related events account for 54.18% of the PPV sales of the UFC since he has debuted on PPV.

Sounds great right? but there have only been 11 PPVs including his since he debuted, he has headlined 5 of them - so he essentially has been in almost 50% of the PPV anyway. So being in the region of 50% of the PPV total is about right - being their primary star and all. Ronda was only on 2 PPVs, remember that.

Gates:

Disclaimer:
Please note that not all gate numbers are announced by the UFC, especially for overseas events. 11 events did not have their gate numbers reported - including a 45,000 seat stadium in Brazil for UFC 198 which probably did an astronomic gate, and a Ronda Rousey card in Brazil for UFC 190 which also probably had a crazy gate.

Conor's total gate numbers through 5 PPV events is an incredible - $50,792,010

All other events added up to a total of - $59,668,168 (excluding 11 events including UFC 190 and 198)

So if you just look at basic figures Conor is responsible for 45.98% - sounds pretty damn good.

Here's some caveats for you though:

> 189 would have still sold loads of tickets prior to Aldo dropping out, only reason why that gate why so high. - > Conor vs Diaz I and II both did several millions less than the Aldo fight, coincidence? I don't think so. People forget how much rivalries sell, it's not all McGregor you know, it was the magntitude of the Aldo fight which persuaded people to spend that much on tickets (myself included, £500 a pop).
> Also, the 17,000,000 gate of NY - we really going to give all that credit to Conor? None of it was the fact it was the first event in NY? or the best card in history? All Conor right!? Come on.

How much has Conor really made the UFC in cold hard cash?


These will not be 100% accurate but the SD viewing of a UFC PPV when you order it is $49,99 - so let's take that number and multiply it by the total PPV buys since Conor debuted on PPV.

"He made the company" - $339,932,000 in PPV in that case + $50,792,010 in gates.

So he made the company a total of $390,724,010 - AMAZING!

Unfortunately there is still a thing called mathematics and that is only 9.3% of the 4.2 billion dollar price tag on the UFC. So calling himself the 4.2 billion dollar man is a little silly.

Claiming that he is solely responsible for the PPV buys and the gates is also a little silly from anyone who actually knows about the sport. Great undercards all the time, and huge stakes around the fights.

Reality is this:


He has done a great job, and with his level of activity he is flying solo in terms of popularity and the money he is bringing in. Unfortunately he's still a little fish in a huge pond when it comes to business, and is simply not ever going to get equity without investing his own money into the business.

These record-breaking gates and PPV numbers will halt soon, there isn't going to be a first event in NY ever again, there isn't going to be history making events like 2 belts at once ever again. It's going to plateau now, I'll put the house on it. He's beatable, and he is a few match-ups away from losing again. Consumers don't like losers, and he will become that in short order with Khabib/Ferguson/Woodley on the menu.

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Short version: to have an equity claim in a 4.2 billion business, you must bring to the table A LOT of cash, AND you can not be on both sides of the counter.

So: not going to happen.
 
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