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This thread is an analysis of why the UFC will likely not strip Conor of either the LW or FW belt should he win the former in November. Of Course, should he lose to Alvarez, this whole conversation becomes mute. But proceeding from the idea that Conor does defeat Alvarez, lets us say by - oh, I don't know - first round KO, I'd like to look at the reasoning behind why the UFC would likely allow him to keep both.
Ultimately the reasoning is simple. Money. Looking at the PPV buys of fights headlined by a LW or FW attraction in recent years it is easy to see why the UFC would be wise, from a business standpoint, to allow Conor to keep and defend both belts for a time. Below I've posted the estimated PPV buys of all FW and LW headlined, or in one case coheadlined, PPVs dating back to 2012, courtesy of mmapayout. For purposes of comparison, I've excluded FW fights headlined by Conor and have included his fights in a separated category.
FW LW
01/14/2012 UFC 142 Aldo vs Mendes 215,000 02/26/2012 UFC 144 Edgar vs. Henderson 325,000
02/02/2013 UFC 156 Aldo vs Edgar 330,000 08/11/2012 UFC 150 Edgar vs. Henderson II 190,000
08/03/2013 UFC 163 Aldo vs Jung 180,000 08/31/2013 UFC 164 Henderson vs. Pettis 270,000
08/02/2014 UFC 176 Aldo vs Mendes II Canceled 12/06/2014 UFC 181 Hendricks vs. Lawler II 400,000
10/25/2014 UFC 179 Aldo vs Mendes II 180,000 03/14/2015 UFC 185 Pettis vs. Dos Anjos 310,000
Average over four events: 226,000 Average over five events: 299,000
Now let's take a look at Conor's numbers:
07/11/2015 UFC 189 McGregor vs Mendes 825,000
12/12/2015 UFC 194 Aldo vs McGregor 1,200,000
03/05/2016 UFC 196 McGregor vs Diaz 1,600,000
08/20/2016 UFC 202 McGregor v Diaz 2 1,650,000
Average over four events: 1,319,000
It is interesting to note here that Conor's numbers are trending upwards, while the FW and LW numbers show no trend in either direction. Conor's placement on the monumental NYC card will likely make his average PPV even higher. What is clear here is that it would take 4-5 PPVs headlined by a non-Mcgregor LW or FW to match a singe average PPV butyrate headlined by Conor. So, even if Conor holds both belts an alternates defenses the UFC would still be pulling in a huge net gain in each division versus what they would if they forced him to vacate a belt.
Ultimately the reasoning is simple. Money. Looking at the PPV buys of fights headlined by a LW or FW attraction in recent years it is easy to see why the UFC would be wise, from a business standpoint, to allow Conor to keep and defend both belts for a time. Below I've posted the estimated PPV buys of all FW and LW headlined, or in one case coheadlined, PPVs dating back to 2012, courtesy of mmapayout. For purposes of comparison, I've excluded FW fights headlined by Conor and have included his fights in a separated category.
FW LW
01/14/2012 UFC 142 Aldo vs Mendes 215,000 02/26/2012 UFC 144 Edgar vs. Henderson 325,000
02/02/2013 UFC 156 Aldo vs Edgar 330,000 08/11/2012 UFC 150 Edgar vs. Henderson II 190,000
08/03/2013 UFC 163 Aldo vs Jung 180,000 08/31/2013 UFC 164 Henderson vs. Pettis 270,000
08/02/2014 UFC 176 Aldo vs Mendes II Canceled 12/06/2014 UFC 181 Hendricks vs. Lawler II 400,000
10/25/2014 UFC 179 Aldo vs Mendes II 180,000 03/14/2015 UFC 185 Pettis vs. Dos Anjos 310,000
Average over four events: 226,000 Average over five events: 299,000
Now let's take a look at Conor's numbers:
07/11/2015 UFC 189 McGregor vs Mendes 825,000
12/12/2015 UFC 194 Aldo vs McGregor 1,200,000
03/05/2016 UFC 196 McGregor vs Diaz 1,600,000
08/20/2016 UFC 202 McGregor v Diaz 2 1,650,000
Average over four events: 1,319,000
It is interesting to note here that Conor's numbers are trending upwards, while the FW and LW numbers show no trend in either direction. Conor's placement on the monumental NYC card will likely make his average PPV even higher. What is clear here is that it would take 4-5 PPVs headlined by a non-Mcgregor LW or FW to match a singe average PPV butyrate headlined by Conor. So, even if Conor holds both belts an alternates defenses the UFC would still be pulling in a huge net gain in each division versus what they would if they forced him to vacate a belt.