McGregor vs Alvarez - How are people missing this?

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VegetaGD

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Not looking to write a novel, but I see too many people overlooking how critical match-ups are in the outcomes of fights.

A large portion of people are extrapolating that Eddie Alvarez will beat Conor McGregor based on McGregor's performance against Nate Diaz.

Using this logic is faulty for two key reasons:
  • Most people view Nate as a lightweight who isn't top-level in the division which is actually inaccurate. He's hovered in or around the top 10 at LW for ~ 5 years now and actually cracked the top 5 on a few occasions. In short, Nate is an excellent LHW
  • Nate has a style that is very difficult for a guy like Conor McGregor. When you look at pretty much everyone who has beaten Nate, the common denominator is that they were very strong grapplers. They had to be able to either take Nate down and neutralize is jiu-jitsu or at least posses a good enough guard to negate Nate's top attack. Why is this critical? Because Nate's combo of boxing, cardio, and durability enable him to stand and bang with anyone at LHW. As you'll see from reviewing his losses, nobody (not even RDA) chose to trade with Nate. Pretty much everyone one of them used offensive wrestling, leg kicks, GnP, and some occasion setup strikes to control Nate.
The version of Conor that faced Nate the first time was tailor made for him.
  • Overconfident in his power
  • Under conditioned for a stand-up war
  • Smaller in terms of reach and height making it riskier and more energy intensive to engage
  • Underestimated Nate's durability
  • Couldn't mount any reasonable grappling offense or defense allowing Nate to focus on turning the match into a war of attrition
Eddie Alvarez will not benefit from the perfect match-up when he faces Conor:
  • He's smaller in terms of height and reach
  • His chin is not capable of taking Conor's best shots
  • His striking is very unrefined meaning that Conor will easily be able to pick him apart
  • You could argue that he's lost 4 out of his last 5 fights since 3 of his wins are split decisions where a real judge actually scores you as losing the fight. Yes, I fully understand that he did get the win, but when fights are so close where winning or losing depends on a judges biases, it's not a very reassuring win.
  • He may get caught off guard by Conor taking him down since it's almost guaranteed that he'll be most concerned with getting tagged by Conor. Why? Because he doesn't have anywhere near the guard of Nate Diaz so Conor knows that a surprise takedown could mean Eddie is on his back for a whole round
Anyway, I think there will be shock coming from the Conor haters and even the Conor nuthuggers since many of them don't see a dominate win, but I think Conor is going to make Eddie look silly.
 
Alverez striking isn't even close to Conors but Conor is a 2 round fighter and if Alverez can weather the pressure in the first 2 rounds he's got a shot. I'm going to say Conor via TKO 2 minutes into the first round.
 
What a great read
is one possible comment I could have made if I had actually read all that shit
 
therearnaked said:
Alverez striking isn't even close to Conors but Conor is a 2 round fighter and if Alverez can weather the pressure in the first 2 rounds he's got a shot. I'm going to say Conor via TKO 2 minutes into the first round.
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Yea I think it's a really tough fight to call. I'm looking at it as a classic grappler/striker match. I think Eddie goes for the tie-up/takedown early and often, and if Conor can keep it on the feet, he has the chance to put Eddie's lights out at any moment.
 
kwoodward50 said:
Yea I think it's a really tough fight to call. I'm looking at it as a classic grappler/striker match. I think Eddie goes for the tie-up/takedown early and often, and if Conor can keep it on the feet, he has the chance to put Eddie's lights out at any moment.
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I agree but will alverez get hit trying to get inside? It's hard to say. I think alverez will try to stand for the first couple minutes and feel everything out and will eventually shoot or try to clinch conor.
 
therearnaked said:
Alverez striking isn't even close to Conors but Conor is a 2 round fighter and if Alverez can weather the pressure in the first 2 rounds he's got a shot. I'm going to say Conor via TKO 2 minutes into the first round.
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I think the 2 round fighter is undeserved, he threw a lot at Diaz and Nate kept coming which sapped his gas pretty early. He did a lot better in the second fight with a brief period of exhaustion followed by a second wind. Not to mention he's actively working on making cardio a strength.
 
People sleeping on Eddie's boxing. He outstruck Pettis in their fight, outboxed Cerrone and just ktfo RDA.
 
VegetaGD said:
I think the 2 round fighter is undeserved, he threw a lot at Diaz and Nate kept coming which sapped his gas pretty early. He did a lot better in the second fight with a brief period of exhaustion followed by a second wind. Not to mention he's actively working on making cardio a strength.
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I hope he does but he's still not considered a cardio machine by any means. Most of his fights end in 1st or 2nd round only going the distance 3 times. He's still untested in terms of cardio in my opinion.
 
Laystitcher said:
People sleeping on Eddie's boxing. He outstruck Pettis in their fight, outboxed Cerrone and just ktfo RDA.
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Although I agree that Alvarez's boxing is underrated, that's revisionism.

He didn't outstrike Pettis. He sniffed his crotch for the majority of the fight.

He outboxed Cerrone in the first round, who is a notoriously slow starter. For the rest of the fight, Cerrone dismantled him on feet.
 
therearnaked said:
I agree but will alverez get hit trying to get inside? It's hard to say. I think alverez will try to stand for the first couple minutes and feel everything out and will eventually shoot or try to clinch conor.
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Every second that Alvarez keeps it standing is dangerous for him in my opinion. I think he's gonna want to grapple where it is a much safer fight for him, and he has a big advantage there. Even if he isn't that affective and can keep Conor on the fence, Conor might gas hard.
 
Didn't read all that shit, but yeah, we already knew Eddie is the most favorable matchup of all the top LWs. That's why neither of them had to defend their titles before fast tracking the LW champ with no defenses against the FW champ with no defenses.
 
kwoodward50 said:
Every second that Alvarez keeps it standing is dangerous for him in my opinion. I think he's gonna want to grapple where it is a much safer fight for him, and he has a big advantage there. Even if he isn't that affective and can keep Conor on the fence, Conor might gas hard.
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People need to remember as well that alveraz isn't a cardio monster neither. He's a tough motherfucker ill give him that but Conor is the much more technical striker so distance will be key for Alverez.
 
I read all that. Good points. TBH I don't know Eddie's fighting that well, which is why I found it interesting.

I do keep thinking of Eddie swarming RDA with punches. Will be interesting to see how Conor deals with that if it gets to that point.
 
Eddie is confident in his striking for certain. And even he has eluded to confidently out striking McGregor. Bad game plan from anyone I truly smell an early Conor KO of Eddie here. Would give Alverez the edge in a fight if he would employ the takedown cage war tactics. I just see too much ego in him for that early in the fight here based on interviews and past fights. Predict a sub 2min of first KO win for McG.
 
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therearnaked said:
People need to remember as well that alveraz isn't a cardio monster neither. He's a tough motherfucker ill give him that but Conor is the much more technical striker so distance will be key for Alverez.
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Maybe not a monster, but he's gone the distance and won a few times, including some 5 rounders. His cardio is unquestionably better than Conor's.
 
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