Thomson. Woodley is great at landing that right on southpaws and if he can land it on Gastelum and Lawler, who have much better boxing, I have a hard time seeing Maia avoid it. Plus Woodley's TDD is excellent. Shields, who is an excellent wrestler, couldn't take Woodley down so I don't see Maia doing it, at least not consistently or easily the way he did to past opponents.
Thomson is not an easy fight either but I feel like Maia would have somewhat less trouble taking him down and given his lack of experience on the ground I have to think Maia would have a field day if he could get it to the mat. I could be underestimating his footwork and distance control and overestimating Woodley's TDD though.