Condit vs Maia - Gambling opinions

[ocs2304]

I really want to put a little coin on Maia tonight. He's looked so dominant at WW and his take downs and top control are out of this world. We all know Condit struggles with TD defense so everything is telling me put $ on the underdog Maia. This being a 5 rd fight though if Maia doesn't finish inside 3 rds will he have anything left for the championship rounds. Cause if it gets past 3 I can definitely see a late 4th rd or 5rd stoppage for Condit. He has by far the better gas tank. What say you?

 

[Threetrees]

Maia was the underdog yesterday when i checked, and I think the safest pick is Maia by decision so I say go for it

 

[bunt]

If I were betting Maia I would be betting by sub as I can't see him winning 3 of 5 rounds against Condit.

Condit has too much cardio and grit to fade in the 4th and 5th. If Maia catches him there's no shame in that but I can't see him backpacking him for longer than 15 minutes.

If so I will be more dissapointed with condit than I would be impressed by Maia.

Although I am picking Condit in the 4th or 5th so may not be the best person to judge

 

[1King]

Maia or Condit by decision are very good odds right now on my betting site. Both are extremely hard to finish.

 

[AndrewGolota48]

It all depends on how much confidence you have in Maia getting the finish.

Because Condit has that killer instinct. You could have assessed his fight vs DHK the same way, great grappler vs guy with shit TDD. Even Kampmann is memory serves me right was taking Condit down at will, but how did that fight end up? Prime Johnny Hendricks in a 3 round fight barely beat Condit and back then Hendricks was made out of iron and was of course a dominant wrestler. Would he have won a 5 round fight? Condit nearly finished GSP with the head kick in a fight where he got dominated for 99% of it, but still he found that one opportunity and almost snuck out the win with it. GSP will also never gas the way Maia has done several times. Rory threw Condit around for 95% of the fight then got finished.

So you can see there is a bit of a pattern with Condit, which would make it seem that he will finish Maia in the 3-5th round unless Maia finishes him before then.

 

[Ozze]

In a 3 round would be a good bet. In 5 I don't know.

Condit probably can win the first, fourth and fifth.

But hopefully Maia can pull it off. Really want to see him fight for the belt.

 

[THRP45]

Maia by axe kick KO.

 

[vkram]

Fight to end inside the distance, covers an early Maia sub and a late Condit finish.

 

[afm171]

Maia by human backpack...

 

[st0nehead]

I think condit takes this. Maia always had probs with rangy strikers with grappling ability.

 

[MadmanMMA]

Maia will be able to take the fight to the ground and dominate. 3rd or 4th round sub, I'm guessing.. Locking the answer 4th round sub as everyone thinks Maia will gas

 

[thehighking]

I was going to make this thread. I put money down on Maia. I think he'll dominate the fight with his grappling. But Condit is a top fighter he could get the finish if he can avoid getting taken down

 

[FIGHT CITY]

It look like a losing bet to me. But I lost money gambling on MMA so im not a reference

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Check out the thread about it in the MMA Betting section my man. There's some really smart guys in there who have been gambling a long time and can answer a lot of questions for you.

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-on-fox-21-condit-vs-maia-vancouver.3310913/

I wouldn't put too much stock into the answers you get in this thread compared to that one, honestly. You are far more likely to encounter cheerleading/fanboyism in the heavies. (no offense you guys.)

Personally I have a small amount on Maia sub and Maia ML. Also Maia is my 3rd man in a parlay that had Rumble and Cerrone.

My only worry is Maia gassing after 2 or 3 rounds and Condit taking over. He could very well do that but I think his TDD is weak enough that he'll get thoroughly dominated up until that point and possibly submitted.

 

[benebox]

Fight to end inside the distance, covers an early Maia sub and a late Condit finish.

It only pays at 1/2.

 

[Myotherfistisapenis]

My bets:
$100 Maia WINS in Rd. 2 @ +1200
$100 Maia WINS in Rd. 3 @ +1600
$100 Maia WINS in Rd. 4 @ +2200
$100 Condit WINS in Rd. 4 @ +1200
$100 Condit WINS in Rd. 5 @ +1400

I was tempted to put $100 on Condit in Rd. 1 to be safe, but I'm already spreading too many bets on this fight.
If it ends in Rd. 1 or goes to decision then I'm ass out, but I have a feeling that if Maia can't get the sub early then Condit beats him down later.

 

[lifelessheap]

Maia wins the first two but takes damage, then he gasses and Coconduit beats the shit out of him.

Can't wait to see how it really plays out!

 

[Mondo Freaks]

Yea, put some money on Maia. Its a close matchup and as long as Maia can get close, he can finish this fight.

 

[theheater]

i would place 2 bets on this fight if the odds work out

maia sub inside 2 rounds

condit by tko

if the odds dont work out then place an additional bet on condit to win with the appropriate sizing.....and that folks, is how you make money

condit should be the favorite here. i really dont see a decision. the disparity in cardio is just far too wide (btw i started a prediction thread and called conor by dec over nate) here. maia will drown in the later rounds

 

[GusLost]

Maia by human backpack...