Maia isn't gonna sub Condit.

frye666

frye666

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Condit has been in this game way too long. Condit is going to beat him down. If it goes to the ground nothing much will happen. Maia won't get a sub, and Condit won't be aggressive, it will just be a stalemate.
 
And Water isn't going to splash my ass when i take this huge shit.
 
If it goes to the ground you'd better believe Maia is going to style all over Condit.
 
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condit isn't gonna knockout maia
maia has been in the game way too long it will just stalemate on the feet
 
I doubt Maia will sub Condit as his ground game is far more about control than it is going for risky subs and Condit is no slouch on the ground himself, but I could definitely see Maia grinding out a top control decision. Most likely, I think Maia will fade down the stretch and get TKO'd.
 
In that case Maia by KO

Who knows if Condit's chin will hold up after the war with Lawler.

Might be cracked enough for Maia to get a KO

Stranger things have happened.
 
Maia does whatever he wants when he gets you on the ground. Condit better hope it stays on the feet. Chael Sonnen was also in the game for a long time as well (as a grappler specifically) and he got tossed onto his head then triangle-choked all in the same motion.

It's gonna be a good fight, but I wouldn't make predictions about any submissions that Maia won't be getting. He could get anybody given the opportunity.
 
Maia has finished 2 of his last 3 fights which makes me believe he has in fact been working harder to get the sub. That said, before then his last sub was against Story which was years before Magny and before Story I think it wss Sonnen which feels like a decade ago.

I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we saw Condit get choked out but I do see Maia making Condit look bad on the ground if it goes there
 
Condit isn't going to "stalemate" with Maia on the ground. He tends to stay busy from the bottom in guard, but look at what Nick Diaz was doing to him when he had his back. Maia loves taking back mount and grinding someone down from there. There's a larger discrepancy in skill when this fight goes to the mat than there is when it's standing.
 
If it hits the ground Condit is in trouble.

If it stays on the feet Maia is in trouble.

This fight comes down to Condit's TDD. I'm guessing it's won't be up to par this fight.
 
I think only a naive fool thinks Condit doesn't lose badly on the ground against Maia... Then again almost everyone does. But it starts standing, and Condit is a killer on his feet. Typical match for Maia, if he gets them down great. Otherwise, the guys hands are like getting smacked by your kid sister.
 
It depends. If Condit goes full "Diaz 1-2-5" and runs a marathon in the cage Maia might never catch up to him to even try to get him to the ground lol
 
Another boring careful decision win for Condit... he will run from the sub like he ran from Nick DIaz.
 
Maia has been knocked out once, by a one punch KO. He is used to fighting guys larger than Condit and with better TDD. Condit has been submitted on multiple occasions too.
 
frye666 said:
Condit has been in this game way too long. Condit is going to beat him down. If it goes to the ground nothing much will happen. Maia won't get a sub, and Condit won't be aggressive, it will just be a stalemate.
Click to expand...

IF Maia gets him to the ground Carlos may not get subbed, but he will indeed get grappled fucked like a lil bitch. Despite your overwhelming analysis there's tons of evidence to the contrary. Either Carlos KO's/TKO's, or does the running man to a Dec or Maia via grapple fuck.
 
Demian doesnt look like such a wizard when hes fighting guys on the ground who can outscramble him like Shields and Munoz who he certainly didnt stomp on the ground (lost both those fights).

Carlos is one of the best scramblers in the division and a green Carlos gave a prime Shields trouble with his scrambling and hes better than Munoz in that regard. Demian was never able to do anything to Munoz on the ground and he got him in positions to do so b/c of Munoz scrambling and defensive grappling which outside of TDD Carlos is damn good at.

Demian will be able to taichydown Carlos easily since his TDD sucks but those scrambles are gonna make it very tough and taxing for Demian. And his cardio looks good when hes dominating but weve seen him gas badly when his opponents can defend and fight back which Carlos definitely will specially with how aggressive and great his guard is.
 
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