Here's the difference between this card and 182 as well as 100: No drama. Lesnar was feuding with Mir and was going for a title and was beaten, so could he have his revenge? Also, the Jones/DC faceoff with the shoe as well as the surrounding hate easily sold 500k ppv buys, as can be evidenced by the 800k buys. No drama between any of the main card fights.
It'll still sell a million, but could it break 1.6? That's tough to say. People have asked me "is that lesnar guy back again" as if they're almost exasperated that the UFC had to resort to his gimmick again. Sure, it's anecdotal and means nothing, but it could be indicative of people rolling their eyes over this. The CM Punk thing has also turned a lot of people off, expecting him to fight in April, then this card, or August but now September maybe but probably not. There was a lot of support for him and the hype was running hard, but it's a bit tired from riding for so long with nothing to show for it (phrasing).