Distinction between All Time Ranking and Current Ranking

[zec1234]

ScoreCardMMA application calculates two scores for all fighters:
1. Current Score (CS)
2. All Time Total Score (ATT)

Based on those scores we create two separate rankings.
Current ranking describes who has better recent results.
All Time ranking is about overall career.

Current Score is calculated each week. For the historical calculations we store CurrScore at the end of each quarter.
Quarterly CurrScore is one of the variables used to calculate ATT score.

In theory, CurrScore value can go over 1000 points, but no fighter since 1993 was able to go over 1000.
Maximum for ATT points right now is just below 2400.

CurrScore is very volatile and time dependent.
When fighter becomes inactive (long period without fight), CurrScore goes down. When inactive, ATT score stays the same.
CurrScore goes up and down quickly and change with one fight can be significant.
ATT can change faster in the beginning of the career, but it changes slowly close to the end.
ATT score can rarely go down. On inactivity it stays the same. If somebody is not fighting in some quarter, but is still ranked high, he will get a few points for that quarter (depending on his ranking).

New fighter could get into Current top 10 P4P ranking rather quickly (couple of years when given top opponents).
To get into top 10 All Time ranking, fighter typically need more than 10 years.
Jon Jones is an exception. He needed just 7 years to get into top 10, and 8 years for top 5 All Time.

 

[zec1234]

To see the difference in the dynamic between those two scores, here are a few examples.
Following graphs show how AllTimeTotal and CurrScore were changing in time for some fighters.

Fedor Emelianenko

In addition to ATT & CS lines, you can also find Markers for fights.
Green, round marker symbolizes a Win. The value represents Current Score of Opponent.
Opponent CS is an average between CurrScore before and CurrScore after the fight.
Fedor's last opponent is represented by a green circle on the very right. It shows that opponent has a very low current score (~200).
Blue square is a fight where result was Loss or No Contest.
Also, I included a bar that indicates championship bout.
We can see that even in his prime Fedor fought some lesser opponents (CurrScore<400).

Current Score starts dropping when fighter is inactive for a longer period of time.
If there are no fights in 1000 days, then CurrScore becomes zero and fighter is removed from Current Rankings. We can see this for Fedor in 2015.
AllTimeTotal for Fedor didn't change much since 2009. Losing to a high ranked opponent has a similar ATT effect as a win over some lesser opponent.

 

[zec1234]

Here is same graph for Georges St. Pierre

GSP has two losses and both were title fights.
CurrScore drop in 2012 was because of long inactivity (injury).
This last drop is due to "retirement" inactivity.


And her is same graph for Jon Jones.

His ATT score is increasing fast and will continue to rise. Soon he might pass Fedor on All Time list.
One blue square represents only Loss that in our system is treated as NC (DQ after being dominant). That is why Jones' CurrScore didn't drop in Jan 2010.
First title win (Rua) generated huge increase in ATT points. Subsequent title fights add ATT points but not as much as the first title win.

In the last 5 years Jon fought all top opponents (Opponent CurrScore>600). OSP and Chael were not as high as other, but still decent opponents.
Recent win over OSP pushed his ATT up, but CurrScore didn't improve.
Reasons for not improving CS after OSP fight:
1. long period of inactivity (suspension)
2. last opponent (OSP) not being as highly rated as previous opponents
3. not winning in a dominant and exciting fashion as in previous fights (ring rust?)

 

[zec1234]

To determine how many additional ATT points fighter gets at the end of each Quarter, aside from CS, it is also important to see where they are ranked at the end of the quarter.
Ranking in the weight Category and P4P ranking are used to determine ATT points increase.
Here is a graph that also shows Rankings.

DJ was ranked #1 in Flyweight for almost 4 years, but until now he was not able to get into top 3 P4P.
This was mostly because Flyweight division was still not developed and most of his opponents didn't have high CurrScore.
Right now DJ jumped to #1 in Current Ranking, but he might not stay there for a long.
His jump in the P4P ranking is also partially due to other champions recent losses (Aldo, Weidman).

DJ is one of the most dependable champions. He fights at least twice each year.
Dashes at the bottom show number of fights per Quarter.

 

[Rittsy]

Science!

 

[Sigoff2]

Inb4 nerd and gayyyyyy gifs. Didn't read. Actually your thread will die with very few responses.

 

[zec1234]

Science!

Statistics!

 

[zec1234]

To compare careers of two fighters we can put their scores on the same graph.

Here is the comparison for Fedor and GSP.

Fedor started professional MMA 20 months before GSP and his ATT score was initially rising much faster.
After Pride was gone, Fedor still had some successes, but ATT point increase slowed down.
He was ranked #1 All Time until Anderson dethroned him in 2013.

 

[Merman]

Very nice...but how can current surpass all time score?

 

[zec1234]

Very nice...but how can current surpass all time score?

Those two scores represent two different things and cannot be compared.
They are on different scales (CS = 0-1000 , ATT = 0 - 2500) and calculated with completely different algorithms.
Thanks for your question.

 

[charalsias]

 

[SirKratos]

Cool stuff man, I trust your criterias and algorithms. Where can we check out all the rankings?

 

[zec1234]

Cool stuff man, I trust your criterias and algorithms. Where can we check out all the rankings?

Trust, but verify

You can see current numbers, formulas and explanation on our website www.ScoreCardMMA.com
- All Time Ranking
- Current P4P Ranking
- Current HW Ranking

 

[BRaVo cHoKe]

http://scorecardmma.com/scmma/index.php/fighter-rankings/current-rankings

I saw Bas in the top 20. Respect.

 

[zec1234]

http://scorecardmma.com/scmma/index.php/fighter-rankings/current-rankings
I saw Bas in the top 20. Respect.

Thanks.
Here is one for you - Bass Rutten historical scores:

He was a real GOAT before new generation of fighters.
Graphs tells the whole story.

And career comparison between Bas and Ken:

Ken continued fighting for a long time after his peak, but not successfully.
Because of all those losses and subpar opponents, his ATT score dipped somewhat after 2002.

 

[zec1234]

Here is another way to show how those two scores behave differently.

First graph shows how All Time Total score was changing historically for top 8 All Time fighters:

Veteran fighters have reached their pinnacle and they "don't have much more to prove".
If they continue fighting top opponents and continue winning, their ATT score will improve, but not significantly.
For fighters that recently (in the last few years) achieved their best results, ATT score might continue to go up rapidly.


Second graph shows how Current Score was changing historically for same 8 fighters:

You can see how quickly this score can change.

 

[zec1234]

Let me know if you guys would like to see a graph for any specific fighter. Or to compare any two fighters?

 

[mank84]

zec1234 one question: I have seen in scorecardmma.com the championship bouts and there are details that do not add me. For example:
In KOTC 16 - Double Cross (August 2, 2002) there were 4 title fights:
Ambriz-Bobish SuperHeavy
White-Rogers LightHeavy
Vazquez-Gardner Light
Lister-Seguin Middle
but in the events Ranking it says that there were only two championships. Another example:
In KSW 31 (2015-05-23) 2 title fights:
Materla-Drwal Middle
Reljic-Vegh LightHeavy
in the Events Ranking indicates 3 titles.
Why there are these discrepancies?
Congratulations for your work and I apologize because my English is not very good. Greetings from Spain!

 

[mank84]

I thought of developing a ranking of the fighters with most championship titles based in scorecardmma's events ranking, but I have found these discrepancies.

 

[Emjay]

Needs more Bollinger Bands

Rankings don't matter