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Updated Post 4/15/24
The early bill before a 2025 showdown looks to be dead in the the Senate. Enough high ranking Republicans like Tillis and Cornyn (senators on the top list for succeeding McConnell as senate GOP leader) not interested in it's passage. The bill ultimately was filling in the gap before 2025 so everything would still be expiring again but at that same time.
I find this one a bit odd in the sense you don't usually see a largely bipartisan bill originate in the House and then die in the Senate like this. Normally the other way around.
Updated Post 2/1/24
Passed House vote in what looks to have been 2/3 majority to avoid a bunch of procedural hoops. Odd vote as a minority of GOP and Dems were in the no block
Updated Post 1/19/24
The bill passed the House Ways and Means committee 40-3
Posted 1/18/24
So it looks like some of this might get addressed during election season rather than kicked down the road to 2025 (sort of). Child Tax Credit expansion from 1,600 to 2,000 along with business tax cuts allowing for accelerated depreciation on R&D and capital expenditure for 2023-2025. The offset revenues would come from an employee retention tax credit that was around for COVID and needs phased out. I don't have the summarized totals if it is budget neutral. The thing with this is having it expire in 2025 aligns these items with the other TCJA expirations so 2025 will still be pivotal in Congress after the election
The Bill
This bill looks to have low chance of passing from what some lawmakers think. Unlikely to see a vote in the House if I had to guess but worth keeping an eye on. Its clear what the bargaining chips are as mentioned back in December.
The early bill before a 2025 showdown looks to be dead in the the Senate. Enough high ranking Republicans like Tillis and Cornyn (senators on the top list for succeeding McConnell as senate GOP leader) not interested in it's passage. The bill ultimately was filling in the gap before 2025 so everything would still be expiring again but at that same time.
'On life support': Senate Republicans are prepared to sink the child tax credit bill
NBCSenate Republicans are inching closer to burying a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit and provide breaks for businesses, issuing a series of demands that would most likely disrupt the coalition that enabled it to pass the House.
The $78 billion bill, negotiated by House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., passed the Republican-led House by a vote of 357-70 in January, a rare feat in a divided Congress that has struggled to function. But it has languished in the Senate, where key Republicans have said they’ll kill it unless it includes major revisions. Senate Democrats have 51 seats, and they need 60 votes to break a filibuster.
But with tax filing season close to finishing and election-year politics heating up, there’s no hint of a resolution in sight. Democratic leaders are eager to pass the legislation, which, according to one analysis, would benefit about 16 million children in low-income households. Some Republicans openly warn they may sink it.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a member of the Finance Committee, said he’d be happy to see the entire tax bill fade away.
“I hope so,” Tillis said, adding that it doesn’t have the necessary 60 votes to pass in the Senate today.
The Senate Should Reject the Wyden-Smith Tax Bill
WSJ OpEd by Senator TillisIf you listen to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, you would think that House Republicans secured a monumental tax deal that advances conservative priorities, justifying his public call for the Senate to pass it quickly.
As always, the devil is in the details. Senate Republicans have been doing their homework to find out what is actually in Mr. Smith and Sen. Ron Wyden’s Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 and what implications it would have on future tax policy. Upon further inspection, it’s hard to avoid the impression that House Republicans got played by Senate Democrats doing the bidding of the Biden administration.
The fundamental problem with the bill is that Republicans made a major concession to Democrats—allowing the child tax credit to begin to transition into a de facto welfare program—in return for something Democrats already wanted: research-and-development tax breaks for businesses.
President Biden and Democratic lawmakers have been keen to weaken the work requirements of the child tax credit as part of their “Build Back Better” agenda. They love to use the term “refundability,” which means ensuring that people get money from the government even if they don’t pay taxes.
I find this one a bit odd in the sense you don't usually see a largely bipartisan bill originate in the House and then die in the Senate like this. Normally the other way around.
Updated Post 2/1/24
Passed House vote in what looks to have been 2/3 majority to avoid a bunch of procedural hoops. Odd vote as a minority of GOP and Dems were in the no block
House approves major bipartisan tax bill to expand child tax credit, business breaks
CBSThe House voted on Wednesday to approve a bill that would expand the child tax credit and extend some business tax credits in a rare and long-sought bipartisan victory amid divided government.
The legislation passed the House in a 357 to 70 vote, far surpassing the two-thirds majority it required. 188 Democrats joined 169 Republicans in voting to approve the bill, while 23 Democrats and 47 Republicans voted against it. The measure now heads to the Senate.
Updated Post 1/19/24
The bill passed the House Ways and Means committee 40-3
House panel advances tax deal with resounding bipartisan vote
A deal to reduce taxes for businesses and increase the child tax credit (CTC) made it out of the House Ways and Means Committee with broad bipartisan support Friday.
The tax deal advanced with 40 votes in favor and only three opposed.
Posted 1/18/24
So it looks like some of this might get addressed during election season rather than kicked down the road to 2025 (sort of). Child Tax Credit expansion from 1,600 to 2,000 along with business tax cuts allowing for accelerated depreciation on R&D and capital expenditure for 2023-2025. The offset revenues would come from an employee retention tax credit that was around for COVID and needs phased out. I don't have the summarized totals if it is budget neutral. The thing with this is having it expire in 2025 aligns these items with the other TCJA expirations so 2025 will still be pivotal in Congress after the election
Congress announces major tax deal to expand child tax credit and revive breaks for businesses
NBCSenior lawmakers in Congress announced a bipartisan deal Tuesday to expand the child tax credit and provide a series of tax breaks for businesses.
The $78 billion tax agreement between House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., and Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., caps months of negotiating and pursuing common ground in the divided Congress.
It still needs to be written into legislation and secure the votes to pass the Republican-led House and the Democratic-led Senate, which is not guaranteed. But the top tax writers are hopeful it can pass quickly, before people file their taxes this year.
“American families will benefit from this bipartisan agreement that provides greater tax relief, strengthens Main Street businesses, boosts our competitiveness with China, and creates jobs,” Smith said in a statement.
The deal, details of which were reported earlier by NBC News, would enhance refundable child tax credits in an attempt to provide relief to families that are struggling financially and those with multiple children. It would also lift the tax credit's $1,600 refundable cap and adjust it for inflation.
The Bill
Five Things to Know About the Bipartisan Tax Deal from the Bipartisan Policy Center
The new Child Tax Credit deal is really a safety net deal—and by that measure it is only a start from Brookings Institution
Bipartisan CTC Framework Would Help Lowest Income Quintiles from the Tax Policy Center
This bill looks to have low chance of passing from what some lawmakers think. Unlikely to see a vote in the House if I had to guess but worth keeping an eye on. Its clear what the bargaining chips are as mentioned back in December.
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