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I'm extra excited this year because I have a Flo Grappling account and will actually be able to follow the action for once. I spent too long looking at the brackets and here are my thoughts and predictions for all of the black belt divisions, from the quarterfinals through the finals.
Note: I accidentally wrote 1, 2, 3, 4 when typing this out and it should read 1, 2, 3, 3.
Rooster:
1. Bruno Malfacine
2. Caio Terra
3. Lucas Pinheiro
4. Jorge Nakamura
Unfortunately, I am unfamiliar with any of the fighters on the top left corner of the bracket, so I picked Nakamura based on camp alone. The rest of the bracket is pretty straightforward I think. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pinheiro upset Caio Terra and fall to Malfacine in the final.
Light Feather:
1. Michael Musumeci (new American World Champ)
2. Joao Miyao
3. Ary Farias
4. Gabriel Moraes
I think Musumeci is good enough to play a competition oriented game and tie guys up long enough to prevent from being scored on while slowly threatening. Therefore, I think he wins against Doederlin in a rematch. Ary Farias will be game in the semi final after beating Beleza (who beats Samir), but I think if he plays it smart, he will get it done and make history as the third male American black belt champion. Moraes over Hiago in the quarter, and Miyao over Moraes in the semi. Hard to bet on Miyao over Musumeci given their history, but stranger things have happened.
Feather:
1. Cobrinha
2. Marcio Andre
3. Gianni Grippo
4. Samuel Braga
I see Cobrinha slaughtering his side of the bracket. The opposite side of page one is interesting, with Shane Jamil Hill-Taylor against Jeffery Cummings, but i think Hill-Taylor is technical enough to negate Cummings' top game. I take Braga over Hill-Taylor in a competitive match, as Braga is a veteran world champion that is very good at dealing with complicated guard work. On page two, I think Jon Thomas beats Silvio Duran first round, but falls to Marcio Andre in the quarter final. I expect Quexinho to beat Aj Agazarm in his featherweight debut, but once again lose to Gianni Grippo in a close one, who will fall to Andre in the semi final. I think Cobrinha avenges his loss to Andre with more preparation and less giant cuts to the head.
Light:
1. Lucas Lepri (close out w Langhi)
2. Michael Langhi (close out w Lepri)
3. Edwin Najmi
4. Celso Vinicius
Now this is a damn division! Jake McKenzie over Michael Liera in the first match, which leads to McKenzie versus Renato Canuto, which is a match I really wanna see. Jake is bigger, more experienced, but less dynamic. Can slow Canuto down with his closed guard game. Whoever wins, they ain't beating Lepri. Opposite their side, it will be Palito against Najmi. Off the top of my head, I believe Najmi finished Rolles last time, and I think he will do it again to meet (and lose to) Lepri in the semi. On page two, I see Satoshii besting Mafra, and falling to Michael Langhi in the quarter final. Celso Vinicius will meet Andris Burnovskis in the quarter final (after Brunovskis picks up his second win against Baiano in the previous round in another very close match), and although it could go either way, I give the edge to Ceslinho. Would NOT be surprised to see Andris pull the upset, but either way, I think Langhi makes it to the final and closes out with Lepri. Don't know how that works out. Langhi took gold the last time they closed out in 2015. So do they switch this time?
Middle:
1. Gabriel Arges (close out with Souza)
2. Otavio Souza (close out with Arges)
3. Josh Hinger
4. Victor Silveiro
Victor Silveiro over Tinoco in the quarter, but that could be reversed. Silveiro seems to crack under pressure a lot. Opposite side of page one, I pick Otavio Souza over Mansher Khera. Page 2 is a nightmare. Smart money says Isaque Bahinese to the semis, but I am picking my dark horse of the tournament here, Josh Hinger, to make it through a murderer's row of Gabriel Goulart, Jamie Canuto and then Isaque. Opposite, I expect to see Vitor Oliveria lose a tough one to Arges, who takes out Hinger in the semi. We get a repeat close out, and the question is does Arges get it, because Souza took the gold last year, or does seniority win, and Souza takes another one?
Middle Heavy:
1. Felipe Pena
2. Lucas Barbosa
3. Andre Galvao
4. Lucas Rocha
Galvao eats everyone's lunch on his side of the bracket. I expect him to meet Felipe Pena (who will defeat Renato Cardoso in the quarter) in the semi final, dropping a close match. Page 2 is the hardest to call of the tournament for me. First round, Dillon Danis versus Lucas Hulk. I give the edge to Hulk based on size, strength and aggressiveness. Danis didn't seem too fired up against Rocha at Pans. I hope they both fight for the takedown and we get fireworks. Crazy prediction for Worlds: Hulk over Romulo. I think Hulk can do what Bahinese did, but even cleaner. And I expect him to once again take out Lucas Rocha, who he will face in the semi final. Pena via dominant victory over Lucas in the final, probaby.
Heavy:
1. Leandro Lo
2. Nicholas Meregali
3. Jackson Souza
4.Tanner Rice
Leandro Lo over Matteus Diniz in the quarter. I think he meets Jackson Souza in the semis, and beats him by a landslide.Nicholas Meregali beats Lucas Leite in the quarter final, and then moves through the semi final, defeating Tanner Rice, in what will be considered one of the best matches in the tournament. Lo and Meregali will be decided 2-0 in favor of Lo, in a very close, careful, slow paced match.
Super Heavy:
1. Bernardo Faria
2. Erberth Santos
3. Roberto Abreu
4. Luiz Panza
This division is far more condensed than others, which means more action in earlier rounds. I pick Bernardo Faria to take out a tough Jared Dopp in the elimination rounds, before beating Luiz Panza in the semi final. On the other side, Erberth Santos doesn't even break a sweat making it to the semis, where he faces Cyborg. That corner of the bracket is interesting. Eliot Kelly has beaten Xande, and has the top game to give Cyborg trouble, but ultimately I pick Cyborg to move on and defeat a game Aly. Would not at all be surprised to see Aly upset and make the semi, where he loses to Erberth. I think Faria weathers the early storm from Erberth in the finals, and puts an end to his hot streak in true Bernardo fashion... sucking him into half guard, sweeping to the top and crushing, avenging his injury loss upset at Worlds last year.
Ultra Heavy:
1. Buchecha
2. Alexander Trans
3. Joao Gabriel Rocha
4. Gabriel Lucas
Joao Gabriel Rocha over Vinny Magalhaes opening round, and continuing on to take out James Puopolo before submitting to Buchecha in the semi final. On the other side, Gabriel Fedor takes out Shoe Face, Trans beats Cavaca again, and then Buchecha beats Trans in the final by a narrow margin... again. This is the only division that is giving me a hard time, as Antonio Carlos has some notable wins under his belt, and very well could beat Gabriel Lucas and even upset Trans. But with his concentration being MMA, I am reluctantly going with Fedor.
And for the ladies:
Rooster:
1. Rikako Yuasa
2. Outi Jarvilheto
3. Rayanne Santos
4. Kinako Inaba
I will be the first to tell you, I have no idea who these women are aside from former multiple time World Champion Rikako Yuasa. But guess what? Four out of five of these girls are getting on the podium, so I'll probably still be dead on despite just randomly guessing. Jarvilheto already has a silver medal, so why not repeat it right?
Light Feather:
1. Gezary Matuda
2. Pati Fontes
3. Sofia Amarante
4. Kristina Barlaan
Gezary Matuda submits Sofia Amarante in the semi final. Pati Fontes beats Kristina Barlaan, and submits to Gezary in the final. Not much more to say about a division that starts in the quarter final.
Feather:
1. Mackenzie Dern
2. Bianca Basillo
3. Ana Carolina
4. Aarae Alexander
Bianca Basillo over Ana Carolina, and Mackenzie Dern over Aarae Alexander. Dern takes it in a competitive finals. ASTERIK! Basillo is GOOD, and has been preparing at AOJ. This could be the makings for a huge upset against Dern, and I would love to see a star born.
Light:
1. Bia Mesquita
2. Tammi Musumeci
3. Luiza Monteiro
4. Laurah Hallock? Sure, why not.
Bia Mesquita over Fabiana Borges in the quarter final, and meets Tammi Musumeci in the final (who beats Luiza Monteiro in the semi final with her guard work). Bia by points or toe hold.
Middle:
1. Ana Carolina Vieira
2. Monique Elias
3. Caitlin Huggins
4. Jackeline Oliveira
Monique Elias over Caitlin Huggins in the semi final. Ana Carolina beats former World Champion Elias in the final and stakes her claim to the throne.
Middle Heavy:
1. Andresa Correa
2. Nathiely de Jesus
3. Jessica Flowers
4. Charlene Coats?
Another thin division. Correa has a bye round into the semi, so she is guarunteed to medal, and since she is a former champion, and the only name I recognize on that side of the bracket, I will just assume she slides into the final and wins. Flowers submitted Andresa at Pans, and Bathiely won Worlds at brown belt, so at least there's reason to believe the results will be competitive.
Heavy:
1. Talita Nogueira
2. Fernanda Mazzelli
3. Claudia Fernanda
4. Samela Leite
Another 5 woman division, meaning at least 4 women will place. Mazzelli is the reigning champ, Talita is a former champ. Treta has been around for awhile and is very tough and gritty so I pick her. The rest just kind of default for bronze.
Super Heavy:
1. Tayane Profirio
2. Venla Orvokki
3. n/a
4. n/a
There are only two women in the division, and Tayane is freaking huge.
Note: I accidentally wrote 1, 2, 3, 4 when typing this out and it should read 1, 2, 3, 3.
Rooster:
1. Bruno Malfacine
2. Caio Terra
3. Lucas Pinheiro
4. Jorge Nakamura
Unfortunately, I am unfamiliar with any of the fighters on the top left corner of the bracket, so I picked Nakamura based on camp alone. The rest of the bracket is pretty straightforward I think. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pinheiro upset Caio Terra and fall to Malfacine in the final.
Light Feather:
1. Michael Musumeci (new American World Champ)
2. Joao Miyao
3. Ary Farias
4. Gabriel Moraes
I think Musumeci is good enough to play a competition oriented game and tie guys up long enough to prevent from being scored on while slowly threatening. Therefore, I think he wins against Doederlin in a rematch. Ary Farias will be game in the semi final after beating Beleza (who beats Samir), but I think if he plays it smart, he will get it done and make history as the third male American black belt champion. Moraes over Hiago in the quarter, and Miyao over Moraes in the semi. Hard to bet on Miyao over Musumeci given their history, but stranger things have happened.
Feather:
1. Cobrinha
2. Marcio Andre
3. Gianni Grippo
4. Samuel Braga
I see Cobrinha slaughtering his side of the bracket. The opposite side of page one is interesting, with Shane Jamil Hill-Taylor against Jeffery Cummings, but i think Hill-Taylor is technical enough to negate Cummings' top game. I take Braga over Hill-Taylor in a competitive match, as Braga is a veteran world champion that is very good at dealing with complicated guard work. On page two, I think Jon Thomas beats Silvio Duran first round, but falls to Marcio Andre in the quarter final. I expect Quexinho to beat Aj Agazarm in his featherweight debut, but once again lose to Gianni Grippo in a close one, who will fall to Andre in the semi final. I think Cobrinha avenges his loss to Andre with more preparation and less giant cuts to the head.
Light:
1. Lucas Lepri (close out w Langhi)
2. Michael Langhi (close out w Lepri)
3. Edwin Najmi
4. Celso Vinicius
Now this is a damn division! Jake McKenzie over Michael Liera in the first match, which leads to McKenzie versus Renato Canuto, which is a match I really wanna see. Jake is bigger, more experienced, but less dynamic. Can slow Canuto down with his closed guard game. Whoever wins, they ain't beating Lepri. Opposite their side, it will be Palito against Najmi. Off the top of my head, I believe Najmi finished Rolles last time, and I think he will do it again to meet (and lose to) Lepri in the semi. On page two, I see Satoshii besting Mafra, and falling to Michael Langhi in the quarter final. Celso Vinicius will meet Andris Burnovskis in the quarter final (after Brunovskis picks up his second win against Baiano in the previous round in another very close match), and although it could go either way, I give the edge to Ceslinho. Would NOT be surprised to see Andris pull the upset, but either way, I think Langhi makes it to the final and closes out with Lepri. Don't know how that works out. Langhi took gold the last time they closed out in 2015. So do they switch this time?
Middle:
1. Gabriel Arges (close out with Souza)
2. Otavio Souza (close out with Arges)
3. Josh Hinger
4. Victor Silveiro
Victor Silveiro over Tinoco in the quarter, but that could be reversed. Silveiro seems to crack under pressure a lot. Opposite side of page one, I pick Otavio Souza over Mansher Khera. Page 2 is a nightmare. Smart money says Isaque Bahinese to the semis, but I am picking my dark horse of the tournament here, Josh Hinger, to make it through a murderer's row of Gabriel Goulart, Jamie Canuto and then Isaque. Opposite, I expect to see Vitor Oliveria lose a tough one to Arges, who takes out Hinger in the semi. We get a repeat close out, and the question is does Arges get it, because Souza took the gold last year, or does seniority win, and Souza takes another one?
Middle Heavy:
1. Felipe Pena
2. Lucas Barbosa
3. Andre Galvao
4. Lucas Rocha
Galvao eats everyone's lunch on his side of the bracket. I expect him to meet Felipe Pena (who will defeat Renato Cardoso in the quarter) in the semi final, dropping a close match. Page 2 is the hardest to call of the tournament for me. First round, Dillon Danis versus Lucas Hulk. I give the edge to Hulk based on size, strength and aggressiveness. Danis didn't seem too fired up against Rocha at Pans. I hope they both fight for the takedown and we get fireworks. Crazy prediction for Worlds: Hulk over Romulo. I think Hulk can do what Bahinese did, but even cleaner. And I expect him to once again take out Lucas Rocha, who he will face in the semi final. Pena via dominant victory over Lucas in the final, probaby.
Heavy:
1. Leandro Lo
2. Nicholas Meregali
3. Jackson Souza
4.Tanner Rice
Leandro Lo over Matteus Diniz in the quarter. I think he meets Jackson Souza in the semis, and beats him by a landslide.Nicholas Meregali beats Lucas Leite in the quarter final, and then moves through the semi final, defeating Tanner Rice, in what will be considered one of the best matches in the tournament. Lo and Meregali will be decided 2-0 in favor of Lo, in a very close, careful, slow paced match.
Super Heavy:
1. Bernardo Faria
2. Erberth Santos
3. Roberto Abreu
4. Luiz Panza
This division is far more condensed than others, which means more action in earlier rounds. I pick Bernardo Faria to take out a tough Jared Dopp in the elimination rounds, before beating Luiz Panza in the semi final. On the other side, Erberth Santos doesn't even break a sweat making it to the semis, where he faces Cyborg. That corner of the bracket is interesting. Eliot Kelly has beaten Xande, and has the top game to give Cyborg trouble, but ultimately I pick Cyborg to move on and defeat a game Aly. Would not at all be surprised to see Aly upset and make the semi, where he loses to Erberth. I think Faria weathers the early storm from Erberth in the finals, and puts an end to his hot streak in true Bernardo fashion... sucking him into half guard, sweeping to the top and crushing, avenging his injury loss upset at Worlds last year.
Ultra Heavy:
1. Buchecha
2. Alexander Trans
3. Joao Gabriel Rocha
4. Gabriel Lucas
Joao Gabriel Rocha over Vinny Magalhaes opening round, and continuing on to take out James Puopolo before submitting to Buchecha in the semi final. On the other side, Gabriel Fedor takes out Shoe Face, Trans beats Cavaca again, and then Buchecha beats Trans in the final by a narrow margin... again. This is the only division that is giving me a hard time, as Antonio Carlos has some notable wins under his belt, and very well could beat Gabriel Lucas and even upset Trans. But with his concentration being MMA, I am reluctantly going with Fedor.
And for the ladies:
Rooster:
1. Rikako Yuasa
2. Outi Jarvilheto
3. Rayanne Santos
4. Kinako Inaba
I will be the first to tell you, I have no idea who these women are aside from former multiple time World Champion Rikako Yuasa. But guess what? Four out of five of these girls are getting on the podium, so I'll probably still be dead on despite just randomly guessing. Jarvilheto already has a silver medal, so why not repeat it right?
Light Feather:
1. Gezary Matuda
2. Pati Fontes
3. Sofia Amarante
4. Kristina Barlaan
Gezary Matuda submits Sofia Amarante in the semi final. Pati Fontes beats Kristina Barlaan, and submits to Gezary in the final. Not much more to say about a division that starts in the quarter final.
Feather:
1. Mackenzie Dern
2. Bianca Basillo
3. Ana Carolina
4. Aarae Alexander
Bianca Basillo over Ana Carolina, and Mackenzie Dern over Aarae Alexander. Dern takes it in a competitive finals. ASTERIK! Basillo is GOOD, and has been preparing at AOJ. This could be the makings for a huge upset against Dern, and I would love to see a star born.
Light:
1. Bia Mesquita
2. Tammi Musumeci
3. Luiza Monteiro
4. Laurah Hallock? Sure, why not.
Bia Mesquita over Fabiana Borges in the quarter final, and meets Tammi Musumeci in the final (who beats Luiza Monteiro in the semi final with her guard work). Bia by points or toe hold.
Middle:
1. Ana Carolina Vieira
2. Monique Elias
3. Caitlin Huggins
4. Jackeline Oliveira
Monique Elias over Caitlin Huggins in the semi final. Ana Carolina beats former World Champion Elias in the final and stakes her claim to the throne.
Middle Heavy:
1. Andresa Correa
2. Nathiely de Jesus
3. Jessica Flowers
4. Charlene Coats?
Another thin division. Correa has a bye round into the semi, so she is guarunteed to medal, and since she is a former champion, and the only name I recognize on that side of the bracket, I will just assume she slides into the final and wins. Flowers submitted Andresa at Pans, and Bathiely won Worlds at brown belt, so at least there's reason to believe the results will be competitive.
Heavy:
1. Talita Nogueira
2. Fernanda Mazzelli
3. Claudia Fernanda
4. Samela Leite
Another 5 woman division, meaning at least 4 women will place. Mazzelli is the reigning champ, Talita is a former champ. Treta has been around for awhile and is very tough and gritty so I pick her. The rest just kind of default for bronze.
Super Heavy:
1. Tayane Profirio
2. Venla Orvokki
3. n/a
4. n/a
There are only two women in the division, and Tayane is freaking huge.