2016 Recap & Analytics

EZ, you ever considered making this a full time job? All that shit you mentioned sounds like a full time job lol.

The dream is to make sports betting a full time job, or should I say a part time job. The issue is if I can actually get the money out of these offshore books haha.

I started using a spreadsheet this year to track everything. I'm using the basic version from here http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/

It's only January 5, and I already have 17 bets, mostly NBA, lbs.

No, it's far from full-time job for me. It's supplemental income and my favorite hobby, not nearly enough to sustain a living

With the limits and hoops you have to jump thru, I don't see how anyone could make a living being a professional Mma bettor
 
No, it's far from full-time job for me. It's supplemental income and my favorite hobby, not nearly enough to sustain a living

With the limits and hoops you have to jump thru, I don't see how anyone could make a living being a professional Mma bettor

If you have the bankroll and obviously assuming you can consistently make good bets it would be easy to do living in Vegas. There are enough casinos that they would not be too bothered if you were just making 4-5k bets here and there.

Also if you are getting concerned they are catching on you can just give the money to your GF or wife to go place the bet for you.

However, you are right that trying to do this online and make 80-100k/year is not going to be sustainable.

EZ - based on your stats how are you going to change your betting style going forward? Are you going to bet more units on the dogs you like and avoid the slight favourites?
 
If you have the bankroll and obviously assuming you can consistently make good bets it would be easy to do living in Vegas. There are enough casinos that they would not be too bothered if you were just making 4-5k bets here and there.

Also if you are getting concerned they are catching on you can just give the money to your GF or wife to go place the bet for you.

However, you are right that trying to do this online and make 80-100k/year is not going to be sustainable.

EZ - based on your stats how are you going to change your betting style going forward? Are you going to bet more units on the dogs you like and avoid the slight favourites?
I've always viewed Vegas trips as the ultimate in becoming a full time gambler. My plan is to begin doing so once i've banked somewhere close to 6 figures from gambling, however long that might take, and of course only for lines I have Dillashaw vs Lineker confidence in.

But like you said, not sure why anyone wouldn't be able to make a living from it. There are people who make a living off basically all types of gambling
 
No, it's far from full-time job for me. It's supplemental income and my favorite hobby, not nearly enough to sustain a living

With the limits and hoops you have to jump thru, I don't see how anyone could make a living being a professional Mma bettor

is that the reason you don't increase your bankroll, to prevent limits? apparently sham is making some serious money doing this online although if memory serves me right i remember him saying something about going to betting shops as well.

I think i agree with budden about making a living with this especially given the fact you're so damn consistent with your bets throughout the years.

I think exchange models are a great option as well if you play with more money, moreso in the future i'm guessing. Pinnacle accepts high rollers but i don't know if they accept us customers.
 
I've always viewed Vegas trips as the ultimate in becoming a full time gambler. My plan is to begin doing so once i've banked somewhere close to 6 figures from gambling, however long that might take, and of course only for lines I have Dillashaw vs Lineker confidence in.

But like you said, not sure why anyone wouldn't be able to make a living from it. There are people who make a living off basically all types of gambling

You are on the east coast so it is a bit of a trip. I am just across the border from Washington so I can drive 30 min. hop on a plane and be in Vegas in 2 hours - pretty sweet.

The hard thing is convincing my wife why we need to go to Vegas...lolz. My goal is to get financially setup so I can make annual trips to Vegas, take in a UFC event or just play poker and make bets on UFC at the sportsbook.

It's so funny everyone I know thinks Vegas is a pit of slime however for me it is like heaven. Great food - gambling and booze everywhere. I AM old so it is not like a party hard thing just take it chill and enjoy.
 
You are on the east coast so it is a bit of a trip. I am just across the border from Washington so I can drive 30 min. hop on a plane and be in Vegas in 2 hours - pretty sweet.

The hard thing is convincing my wife why we need to go to Vegas...lolz. My goal is to get financially setup so I can make annual trips to Vegas, take in a UFC event or just play poker and make bets on UFC at the sportsbook.

It's so funny everyone I know thinks Vegas is a pit of slime however for me it is like heaven. Great food - gambling and booze everywhere. I AM old so it is not like a party hard thing just take it chill and enjoy.
Yeah thats why barring a beast parlay hit it will prob be awhile before I incorporate those lol and i'll def make a trip out of it if possible (and especially if I win)

Never been to Vegas so i'm REALLY looking forward to the day I have the bankroll and I see a bet I like enough for the trip lol should make the first time there even more fun
 
No, it's far from full-time job for me. It's supplemental income and my favorite hobby, not nearly enough to sustain a living

With the limits and hoops you have to jump thru, I don't see how anyone could make a living being a professional Mma bettor
It's doable in the UK because of exchanges, betting shops and the amount of books to spread money around. Pretty much impossible to do in the USA unless you live near Vegas.
 
Yeah thats why barring a beast parlay hit it will prob be awhile before I incorporate those lol and i'll def make a trip out of it if possible (and especially if I win)

Never been to Vegas so i'm REALLY looking forward to the day I have the bankroll and I see a bet I like enough for the trip lol should make the first time there even more fun

Damn. If you have never been to Vegas then it will be really fun for you to go for your first time. And you are right if you go there with a big play in mind then it will be even more epic (win or lose). Just make sure you set aside some money for restaurants and shows etc. Vegas is the most fun if you go there as a bit of a tourist and don't spend all your money on gambling (talking to myself here...)
 
I've been going to Las Vegas every year in January for a couple of conventions and to see business associates and hang out with friends for over twenty years and I like Vegas a lot. It's a hell of a fun place with great clubs, restaurants, casinos and all manner of entertainment. Also, people that are there are always looking for a good time and it leads to a lot of spontaneous and unexpected hookups with various groups of people and members of the opposite sex if you're free to pursue that. I've had some amazing and life affirming experiences there, lol.

Ironically though, I don't care one whit about Vegas as a gambling town. I rarely even put a nickel in a slot machine when I am there. I just don't enjoy gambling other than betting on fighting. And even though I'm going to be there next Sunday during the UFN 103 Penn vs Rodriguez card and I'm staying at the Hard Rock where they have a sportsbook, I doubt I'll lay any action in person. The online books usually have much better prices and more props and who the hell wants to walk around with thousands of dollars in cash?

Also, I have no desire to be a full time gambler who relies on betting for a living. But if one wanted to increase stakes enough to try to make a livable profit on it, I think it's certainly possible to at least try to do so without physically being in Las Vegas. With all the online books both fiat and BTC, plus some exchanges or broker services that one might available oneself, it seems like a person could probably get $5k to $10k on main card UFC fights without leaving the comfort of one's home.
 
2016 Recap

Total Units: +113.21 (749 fights)

event summary:

UFC 195: +2,138.18 <--- first event of 2016 was my best, haha
RFA 34: +188
Invicta 15: +227
UFN 81: +2,135.20
Legacy 50: +87.50
WSOF 27: +200
Bella 148: -123.50
ufc fox 18: +713.39
Legacy 51: -100
ufn 82: -508.74
Bella 149: +84.50
RFA 35: -50
WSOF 28: +50
UFN 83: -77.09
bella 150: +266
ufn 84: +1,010.37
bella 151: +17
titan 37: +116.25
ufc 196: +70.98
invicta 16: -610.50
wsof 29: -353.25
ufn 85: +427.14
Victory 49: +200
WSOF 30: +338.36
Legacy 53: +75.50
UFN 86: -480.78
RFA 35: -50
Bella 152: -24.50
UFC FOX 19: +1,412.87
Rizin 3: -99.50
Bella 153: +341.45
UFC 197: -318.69
Titan 38: +400
Invicta 17: +612.50
UFN 87: -709.85 <----- start of summer slump
UFC 198: -855.35
Bella 154: -176
Bella 155: +387.65
ksw 35: -50
UFN 88: -883.37
UC 199: -138.69
Titan 39: +15
Bella156: -341
WSOF 31: -28.58
ufn 89: +153.96
bella 157: -502.50
ufn 90: -129.41
TUF 23: -51.61
UFC 200: -767.58 <------ end of summer slump (net of -4,077.33 in this period)
UFN 91: +1,115.13
Bella 158: +152.65
Bella 159: +98.16
Legacy 58: -60
UFC Fox 20: -704.69
invicta 18: +87.31
UFC 201: -94.92
WSOF 32: +69.49
Titan 40: -148.50
UFN 92: +513.38
UFC 202: +766.01
Bella 160: -411.59
UFC FOX 21: +438.93
UFN 93: +277.91
Titan 41: +120
RFA 43: +55
UFC 203: +1,054.03
Bella 161: +326.20
UFN 94: -236.15
Invicta 19: +423.19
CES 38: -50
UFN 95: +361.03
Rizin 2: -258.50
UFN 96: +1,216.03
WSOF 33: -73.25
UFC 204: +746.58
Bella 162: -24
Bella 163: -8.75
UFN 98: +111.37
Bella 164: +230
UFC 205: -370.09
Invicta 20: -250
UFN 99: -458.36
UFN 100: +221.19
Bella 165: +592
UFN 101: -1,101.21 <---- worst event of 2016
Titan 42: -280
Bella 166: -46.39
Bella 167: +62.88
TUF 24: -109.09
ufn 102: +91.57
Bella 168: +80.30
UFC 206: +1,612.12
Bella 169: +45
UFC FOX 22: -182.95
UFC 207: +443
Rizin 4: -72
WSOF 34: +528.11

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +88.51 units (560 fights)
Bellator: +10.36 units (83 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): -4.30 units (8 fights)
Invicta: +4.90 units (25 fights)
WSOF: +7.81 units (33 fights)
Titan: +2.48 units (23 fights)
Others: +3.46 units (17 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. - another example would be if I bet a -210 Over, but on a fight where I have a -130 favorite winning, it counts as a -130 "side" and could be misleading))

FAVORITES: +5.21 units (349 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +107.99 units (400 fights)
---
-101 to -200 favorites: -20.65 units (201 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +28.38 units (108 fights)
-401 & up favorites: -2.52 units (40 fights)

dogs up to +200: +123.33 units (219 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: -6.14 units (105 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -9.20 units (76 fights) <-- this includes longshot event props (FOTN, etc)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( -4.11 units total )))
145 (including cyborg-lansberg 140 catchweight): +5.69 units
135: -3.49 units
125: -8.44 units
115: +0.89 units
105: +1.25 units

men: ((( +117.32 units total )))
265: -4.05 units
205: -12.68 units
185: +6.92 units
170: +73.45 units
155: +13.94 units
145: +7.04 units
135: +46.22 units
125: -6.13 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -7.38 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -3.38 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -0.83 units

OVER decisions: -0.24 units
UNDER decisions: -3.76 units
OVER KO/SUBS: -0.29 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -1.04 units

Draws: +2.15 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +105.24 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +7.97 units

-------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
6/4/16: -503.25: cole miller vs caceres
5/8/16: -507: tumenov vs nelson
11/12/16: -544.40: alvarez vs mcgregor
11/26/16: -575.52 matthews vs holbrook
8/26/16: -590: freire vs bendo <------- this was the worst loss of the year, though. in many ways.
11/19/16: -590.84: timothy johnson vs volkov
5/14/16: -642: werdum vs miocic
5/14/16: -656.30: warlley alves vs barberena


huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)
6/4/16: +600.50: ortega vs guida
6/4/16: +645.85: dariush vs vick
6/18/16: +659.26: soto vs beal
11/19/16: +661.49: munhoz vs scoggins
12/10/16: +754.51: swanson vs choi
1/17/16: +770.92: alvarez vs pettis
11/5/16: +784.97: lamas vs oliveira
4/16/16: +809.98: graves vs randy brown
10/8/16: +840.88: edwards vs tumenov
10/1/16: +1,279.34: lineker vs dodson

-------------

I may add to this after reading some of everyone else's (i'm finally gonna start reading them now)

my key takeaways:
-dogs are way better for me than favorites. at least for 2016.
-event props are generally a bad thing
-wmma is generally not good

i'm not sure what to make of my monster year at 170 pounds and 145 pounds.







2015 recap that i did last year (in spoilers here) :
unit: $100.00

2015: +174.59u

ufc: +147.05u
bellator: +20.62u
invicta: +3.21u
wsof: +0.57u
titan: +3.57u
others: -0.43u (interesting)

-------------------------------------------

best events:

UFC 182: +2,133.64
UFC 183: +1,990.38
ufc 188: +1,643.80
ufc fox 17: +1,629.13
UFC 184: +1,490.35
ufn 73: +1,468.53
ufn 63: +1,109.15
tuf 22: +1,041.23
UFN 60: +1,003.56

worst events:

ufn 64: -1,252.15
ufc 189: -1,357.40
UFC Fox 14: -1,932.10

-------------------------------------------

the following categories are PREFIGHT odds. so if i bet a guy who was -150 prefight as a +150 dog, the win goes into the small favorite category, even tho it was a +150 bet

small favorites (up to -200): -8.87u (whoa)
medium favorites (-201 to -400): +7.50u
huge favorites (-401 and up): +17.73u

small dogs (up to +200): +138.33u
medium dogs (+201 to +400): +33.93u
large dogs (+401 and up): -14.04u (whoa)

interesting on small faves and huge dogs. huge dogs are the only lifetime losing category for me, too, for the record.

-------------------------------------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +155.73u
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +18.86u

-------------------------------------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-4u or worse):

12/12/15: saenz vs faber: -400.00
6/20/15: hallmann vs mustafaev: -409.00
3/21/15: dober vs silva: -412.50 (the non-tap)
6/27/15: machida vs romero: -434.75
10/3/15: jouban vs tumenov: -500.00
12/19/15: JDS vs overeem: -502.84
7/11/15: thatch vs gunnar: -505.00
3/14/15: esparza vs jedrzejczyk: -700.00 (the fight that made me make wmma bets smaller)
1/24/15: gustafsson vs AJ: -717.50
1/24/15: aliev vs robertson: -772.50 (i don't remember how i lost so big. i do think it was flukey, tho)
4/11/15: westcott vs pawlak: -816.00 (overestimated westcott SO BADLY)

huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)

1/18/15: pendred vs spencer +607.76 (hehe cathal special)
2/22/15: ponzinnibio vs strickland +617.04
4/18/15: villante vs anderson +631.00 (mostly live)
7/18/15: dunham vs pearson +650.00
12/19/15: oliveira vs jury: +671.83
12/12/15: rockhold vs weidman: +678.01
3/14/15: dariush vs cruickshank: +726.50
1/3/15: felder vs castillo: +733.19
4/25/15: davis vs kaufman: +814.78 (wow, more than i remembered)
3/14/15: RDA vs pettis: +820.42
1/31/15: tate vs mcmann: +824.58 (wow, more than i remembered)
2/13/15: bendo vs thatch: +978.85
1/31/15: lineker vs mccall: +1,074.93 (mostly live)
6/13/15: werdum vs cain: +1,108.00
6/13/15: alvarez vs melendez: +1,208.86 (mostly live)
2/28/15: carneiro vs munoz: +1,399.00 (mostly live)

-------------------------------------------

100u is my yearly goal, so i killed it this year, really happy about it!
200_s.gif
 
is that the reason you don't increase your bankroll, to prevent limits? apparently sham is making some serious money doing this online although if memory serves me right i remember him saying something about going to betting shops as well.

I think i agree with budden about making a living with this especially given the fact you're so damn consistent with your bets throughout the years.

I think exchange models are a great option as well if you play with more money, moreso in the future i'm guessing. Pinnacle accepts high rollers but i don't know if they accept us customers.

Not online most of it is from going into bookies shops.

Want to double my br then go vegas so i can put at least 10k down. In years to come if i can build a healthy enough br id like to make it a quarterly thing.
 
how tf does the uk have bookie shops but the GOATest States of America doesn't smfh
 
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