2016 Recap & Analytics

[EzFlyer]

Now thats stats m'fuckas

hey i've added a bunch to it since you quoted it! and i'm still doing more! haven't even read everyone else's, still catching up, lol

 

[EzFlyer]

huge takeaway for me from looking at my 2015 and 2016 recaps above -- i make WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY more on dogs than favorites.

 

[EzFlyer]

i
also, having to write down my bets will keep me accountable and hesitant to do completely stupid shit (such as hammering sage northcutt to recover from my irene aldana loss).

i think the most important lesson i've learned this year is it's okay to take a loss on any night, it's long term progress that matters. it's never worth throwing big bucks unless you've thoroughly analysed a fight and are confident in your position. i've had some recklass tendencies in 2016 and i think whiskey and gambling are not a good mix. gonna try to be close to sober from now on.

really liked these couple bits of your post

 

[EzFlyer]

2016 was a pretty shitty year for me in my personal life and it definitely affected my betting life as a result as well. I lost focus, started caring less and got lazy with my studying and br management.Don't have the numbers in front of me but it's been one of my worst years I've had in a pretty long time.

Just did a shitty job as an overall capper/bettor and it cost me in the long run. Annoying b/c I've been doing this for years and I know better than to half ass this shit and make the mistakes I made but it's a new year now and I'm in a better place so whatever. Past is the past, good or bad so moving on is the only option.

The things I've been doing wrong are clear and they're pretty simple things to fix so I think this new year will be a nice bounce back so looking forward to that. Anyway hope most of you guys had a nice 2016 and hope everyone will have a good 2017.

Realize this is a somewhat depressing post so to make up for it: bewbs

Spoiler

big ones. Big bouncy ones.

you're wise beyone your years, i've always thought that. keep your head up. you know where to find me anytime you need it.

 

[EzFlyer]

Great thread. 2016 was my first full year of betting on MMA and this forum was absolutely vital in helping me get past some rookie mistakes. I still have plenty of room for improvement though. I didn't start keeping a log of my results until UFC 202 (which was a mistake), but since then I'm +9.1 units overall. Nothing crazy, but betting is strictly a hobby for me, so I'm satisfied with that number. I also finished out the year with three straight losing events, so that was a bit frustrating.

Focus areas for this year:

• Only bet on fights when I have watched tape on BOTH fighters
• Don't be afraid to go bigger on my most confident leans
• Stop being "a fan". The most recent example of this was a fairly big bet on Pettis. If I don't want to bet against my favorite fighters, I need to lay off the fight or go very small
• Start live betting more. I typically end up drinking/getting into the fight and I often completely forget to check lines in between rounds. Lots of opportunities missed

On a side note, I started tracking my NBA bets on November 29th and since then I'm +4.8 units. If I can sustain that longer term, basketball might be worth more of my focus.

Hopefully, I can contribute more to the forum this year and best of luck to everyone in 2017.

can only imagine what you're gonna be able to do in the future w/this being just your first year

 

[EzFlyer]

Dont's:
-Blindly tail people without forming my own opinion by tape watching, breaking down how I envision the fight to go, etc. Don't get me wrong a lot of you on here are far better cappers than I, but I have been guilty of being swayed into a bigger bet based on someone else's confidence.
-Try to make up for losses by reaching later in the night

really like both of these don't 's

 

[Joseph Budden]

Am I the only one with the opposite problem regarding chasing? If I'm down I never chase, but if I'm up I tend to up the stakes on remaining fights regardless of confidence

 

[LEMONZEST]

Am I the only one with the opposite problem regarding chasing? If I'm down I never chase, but if I'm up I tend to up the stakes on remaining fights regardless of confidence

Your reaction is rare imo. I chase when I am down with the hope of having a winning night. I think most people do what I do and naturally want to chase their losses.

I actually think if your natural response is to be ok with a losing night and increase bets when you are winning - that is a good thing. Increasing bets when you are winning is better than making large bets when you are losing and not clear minded. I chase a lot and it usually works out but it is def a bad habit.

Anyway, the point I want to make is that leveraging a winning streak into a better winning streak is a good thing (within reason).

 

[t6p]

can only imagine what you're gonna be able to do in the future w/this being just your first year

Thank you sir, I hope you're right!

 

[Stunna77]

I'm not sure either but we'll figure it out. The link to join is here: http://bit.ly/2iAJF3H

I'm in gents

 

[ivanilich]

Someone mentioned not trusting other people's leans. This year I made an exercise of checking the major websites' predictions before and aftee every event (mmafighting, bloodyelbow, mmamania and mmajunkie).

I don't have a spreasheet or anything, but my takeaway was that MMAMania is the most trustworthy of them all (the predictions posts, not the betting posts - their bettor analyst lost his whole bankroll twice in 2016).

On the other hand MMAFighting.com and Bloodyelbow.com suck at predicting fights. There were so many times when a unanimous pick of all Bloodyelbow's analists went to lose a fight.

MMAJunkie is good because they show the record of each capper that year, so you can ignore the ones with a bad record and consider the best ones only.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Someone mentioned not trusting other people's leans. This year I made an exercise of checking the major websites' predictions before and aftee every event (mmafighting, bloodyelbow, mmamania and mmajunkie).

I don't have a spreasheet or anything, but my takeaway was that MMAMania is the most trustworthy of them all (the predictions posts, not the betting posts - their bettor analyst lost his whole bankroll twice in 2016).

On the other hand MMAFighting.com and Bloodyelbow.com suck at predicting fights. There were so many times when a unanimous pick of all Bloodyelbow's analists went to lose a fight.

MMAJunkie is good because they show the record of each capper that year, so you can ignore the ones with a bad record and consider the best ones only.

LMFAO @ having a bettor write articles who loses their bankroll twice

 

[ivanilich]

2016 Recap

Total Units: +113.21 (749 fights)

event summary:

UFC 195: +2,138.18 <--- first event of 2016 was my best, haha
RFA 34: +188
Invicta 15: +227
UFN 81: +2,135.20
Legacy 50: +87.50
WSOF 27: +200
Bella 148: -123.50
ufc fox 18: +713.39
Legacy 51: -100
ufn 82: -508.74
Bella 149: +84.50
RFA 35: -50
WSOF 28: +50
UFN 83: -77.09
bella 150: +266
ufn 84: +1,010.37
bella 151: +17
titan 37: +116.25
ufc 196: +70.98
invicta 16: -610.50
wsof 29: -353.25
ufn 85: +427.14
Victory 49: +200
WSOF 30: +338.36
Legacy 53: +75.50
UFN 86: -480.78
RFA 35: -50
Bella 152: -24.50
UFC FOX 19: +1,412.87
Rizin 3: -99.50
Bella 153: +341.45
UFC 197: -318.69
Titan 38: +400
Invicta 17: +612.50
UFN 87: -709.85 <----- start of summer slump
UFC 198: -855.35
Bella 154: -176
Bella 155: +387.65
ksw 35: -50
UFN 88: -883.37
UC 199: -138.69
Titan 39: +15
Bella156: -341
WSOF 31: -28.58
ufn 89: +153.96
bella 157: -502.50
ufn 90: -129.41
TUF 23: -51.61
UFC 200: -767.58 <------ end of summer slump (net of -4,077.33 in this period)
UFN 91: +1,115.13
Bella 158: +152.65
Bella 159: +98.16
Legacy 58: -60
UFC Fox 20: -704.69
invicta 18: +87.31
UFC 201: -94.92
WSOF 32: +69.49
Titan 40: -148.50
UFN 92: +513.38
UFC 202: +766.01
Bella 160: -411.59
UFC FOX 21: +438.93
UFN 93: +277.91
Titan 41: +120
RFA 43: +55
UFC 203: +1,054.03
Bella 161: +326.20
UFN 94: -236.15
Invicta 19: +423.19
CES 38: -50
UFN 95: +361.03
Rizin 2: -258.50
UFN 96: +1,216.03
WSOF 33: -73.25
UFC 204: +746.58
Bella 162: -24
Bella 163: -8.75
UFN 98: +111.37
Bella 164: +230
UFC 205: -370.09
Invicta 20: -250
UFN 99: -458.36
UFN 100: +221.19
Bella 165: +592
UFN 101: -1,101.21 <---- worst event of 2016
Titan 42: -280
Bella 166: -46.39
Bella 167: +62.88
TUF 24: -109.09
ufn 102: +91.57
Bella 168: +80.30
UFC 206: +1,612.12
Bella 169: +45
UFC FOX 22: -182.95
UFC 207: +443
Rizin 4: -72
WSOF 34: +528.11

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +88.51 units (560 fights)
Bellator: +10.36 units (83 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): -4.30 units (8 fights)
Invicta: +4.90 units (25 fights)
WSOF: +7.81 units (33 fights)
Titan: +2.48 units (23 fights)
Others: +3.46 units (17 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. - another example would be if I bet a -210 Over, but on a fight where I have a -130 favorite winning, it counts as a -130 "side" and could be misleading))

FAVORITES: +5.21 units (349 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +107.99 units (400 fights)
---
-101 to -200 favorites: -20.65 units (201 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +28.38 units (108 fights)
-401 & up favorites: -2.52 units (40 fights)

dogs up to +200: +123.33 units (219 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: -6.14 units (105 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -9.20 units (76 fights) <-- this includes longshot event props (FOTN, etc)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( -4.11 units total )))
145 (including cyborg-lansberg 140 catchweight): +5.69 units
135: -3.49 units
125: -8.44 units
115: +0.89 units
105: +1.25 units

men: ((( +117.32 units total )))
265: -4.05 units
205: -12.68 units
185: +6.92 units
170: +73.45 units
155: +13.94 units
145: +7.04 units
135: +46.22 units
125: -6.13 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -7.38 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -3.38 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -0.83 units

OVER decisions: -0.24 units
UNDER decisions: -3.76 units
OVER KO/SUBS: -0.29 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -1.04 units

Draws: +2.15 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +105.24 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +7.97 units

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the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
6/4/16: -503.25: cole miller vs caceres
5/8/16: -507: tumenov vs nelson
11/12/16: -544.40: alvarez vs mcgregor
11/26/16: -575.52 matthews vs holbrook
8/26/16: -590: freire vs bendo <------- this was the worst loss of the year, though. in many ways.
11/19/16: -590.84: timothy johnson vs volkov
5/14/16: -642: werdum vs miocic
5/14/16: -656.30: warlley alves vs barberena


huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)
6/4/16: +600.50: ortega vs guida
6/4/16: +645.85: dariush vs vick
6/18/16: +659.26: soto vs beal
11/19/16: +661.49: munhoz vs scoggins
12/10/16: +754.51: swanson vs choi
1/17/16: +770.92: alvarez vs pettis
11/5/16: +784.97: lamas vs oliveira
4/16/16: +809.98: graves vs randy brown
10/8/16: +840.88: edwards vs tumenov
10/1/16: +1,279.34: lineker vs dodson

-------------

I may add to this after reading some of everyone else's (i'm finally gonna start reading them now)

my key takeaways:
-dogs are way better for me than favorites. at least for 2016.
-event props are generally a bad thing
-wmma is generally not good

i'm not sure what to make of my monster year at 170 pounds and 145 pounds.







2015 recap that i did last year (in spoilers here) :

Spoiler

unit: $100.00

2015: +174.59u

ufc: +147.05u
bellator: +20.62u
invicta: +3.21u
wsof: +0.57u
titan: +3.57u
others: -0.43u (interesting)

-------------------------------------------

best events:

UFC 182: +2,133.64
UFC 183: +1,990.38
ufc 188: +1,643.80
ufc fox 17: +1,629.13
UFC 184: +1,490.35
ufn 73: +1,468.53
ufn 63: +1,109.15
tuf 22: +1,041.23
UFN 60: +1,003.56

worst events:

ufn 64: -1,252.15
ufc 189: -1,357.40
UFC Fox 14: -1,932.10

-------------------------------------------

the following categories are PREFIGHT odds. so if i bet a guy who was -150 prefight as a +150 dog, the win goes into the small favorite category, even tho it was a +150 bet

small favorites (up to -200): -8.87u (whoa)
medium favorites (-201 to -400): +7.50u
huge favorites (-401 and up): +17.73u

small dogs (up to +200): +138.33u
medium dogs (+201 to +400): +33.93u
large dogs (+401 and up): -14.04u (whoa)

interesting on small faves and huge dogs. huge dogs are the only lifetime losing category for me, too, for the record.

-------------------------------------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +155.73u
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +18.86u

-------------------------------------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-4u or worse):

12/12/15: saenz vs faber: -400.00
6/20/15: hallmann vs mustafaev: -409.00
3/21/15: dober vs silva: -412.50 (the non-tap)
6/27/15: machida vs romero: -434.75
10/3/15: jouban vs tumenov: -500.00
12/19/15: JDS vs overeem: -502.84
7/11/15: thatch vs gunnar: -505.00
3/14/15: esparza vs jedrzejczyk: -700.00 (the fight that made me make wmma bets smaller)
1/24/15: gustafsson vs AJ: -717.50
1/24/15: aliev vs robertson: -772.50 (i don't remember how i lost so big. i do think it was flukey, tho)
4/11/15: westcott vs pawlak: -816.00 (overestimated westcott SO BADLY)

huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)

1/18/15: pendred vs spencer +607.76 (hehe cathal special)
2/22/15: ponzinnibio vs strickland +617.04
4/18/15: villante vs anderson +631.00 (mostly live)
7/18/15: dunham vs pearson +650.00
12/19/15: oliveira vs jury: +671.83
12/12/15: rockhold vs weidman: +678.01
3/14/15: dariush vs cruickshank: +726.50
1/3/15: felder vs castillo: +733.19
4/25/15: davis vs kaufman: +814.78 (wow, more than i remembered)
3/14/15: RDA vs pettis: +820.42
1/31/15: tate vs mcmann: +824.58 (wow, more than i remembered)
2/13/15: bendo vs thatch: +978.85
1/31/15: lineker vs mccall: +1,074.93 (mostly live)
6/13/15: werdum vs cain: +1,108.00
6/13/15: alvarez vs melendez: +1,208.86 (mostly live)
2/28/15: carneiro vs munoz: +1,399.00 (mostly live)

-------------------------------------------

100u is my yearly goal, so i killed it this year, really happy about it!

How can you keep such an amazing record? Do you type every bet you make on Excel?

 

[iGnP]

How can you keep such an amazing record? Do you type every bet you make on Excel?

lol I do. Very tedious but it's definitely something I recommend doing

 

[ivanilich]

lol I do. Very tedious but it's definitely something I recommend doing

I tried but gave up in a few days. I would pay the bookie for this kind of service if they offered.

 

[EzFlyer]

How can you keep such an amazing record? Do you type every bet you make on Excel?

yep. i track everything there and on the forum and on oddsbeast and back things up on a couple older ones (zewkey and jtww) hehe. i also have many checks and balances and it can be cumbersome but i'm used to it (and it's what i do at work, anyway, so i'm at home)

 

[ivanilich]

yep. i track everything there and on the forum and on oddsbeast and back things up on a couple older ones (zewkey and jtww) hehe. i also have many checks and balances and it can be cumbersome but i'm used to it (and it's what i do at work, anyway, so i'm at home)

Incredible. Congratulations on the discipline.

How do you track parlays? For example, if you do a fav and underdog combined, where does the result go in your spreadsheet: on the favs or underdogs?

I started an excel once, but I used to bet mostly parlays and I was unsure on how to keep track of them. I tried to reduce the amount of parlays, but it affected the fun I had in betting. Then I stopped recording parlays, but the spreadsheet without them simply did not correspond to the reality. In the end I stopped tracking my results. But now seeing your post, it made me want to go back to it.

 

[Buddy Brown]

@EzFlyer your stats gave me a boner. Wish I had the time to keep in-depth stats like that. Do you have stats for live bets only too?

@Sham5916910 if you need any help with bettin.gs let me know.

Can't wait to start tracking for this year. Shame we're starting the year off with such a weak card

 

[OneWarrior1]

EZ, you ever considered making this a full time job? All that shit you mentioned sounds like a full time job lol.

The dream is to make sports betting a full time job, or should I say a part time job. The issue is if I can actually get the money out of these offshore books haha.

I started using a spreadsheet this year to track everything. I'm using the basic version from here http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/

It's only January 5, and I already have 17 bets, mostly NBA, lbs.

 

[EzFlyer]

@EzFlyer your stats gave me a boner. Wish I had the time to keep in-depth stats like that. Do you have stats for live bets only too?

@Sham5916910 if you need any help with bettin.gs let me know.

Can't wait to start tracking for this year. Shame we're starting the year off with such a weak card

No, live bets are incorporated for me

But if a prefight -250 guy becomes a +150 dog and I bet him, I record it as a -250 side.. like I said, that's the gray area for my system. But with 11 calandar years of data, it's good enough