2016 Recap & Analytics

[EzFlyer]

I'll make a big post myself at some point in the next couple days

this is a free-for-all, judgment-free zone of talking about successes, failures

maybe it will help people make improvements or help others with things that work for you, etc.

It will also help you understand your own successes and failures if you take the time and have the information.

so yea, go nuts.

 

[Officer_Brown]

I have no idea where I am exactly because I made so many cash outs but I think i ended up around 10-12k profit. The end of 2016 wasnt good for me. Had few break even events plus few losing events. Around summer i was killing it tho and made the most money. I hit so many sweet parlays. I think im gonna try to do less stupid parlays this year.

 

[weedreference]

Started betting in July 2015 (my first card was McGregor/Mendes) and broke even until the close of the year. Made many, many horrible mistakes in that first 6 months. Not that I didn't this year, but they were far less, and hopefully I can keep minimizing them as time goes on.

I could definitely make more money if I bet less fights, but as many people know, it's not all about the cash. It's about being a degen and having money on nearly every fight.

Sorry, don't have average prices. This is all ML and o/u bets.

Favorite (lower than -110) - 95-57-4
Underdog (higher than +110) - 70-115
Even - 17-18-2
Over - 78-41-1
Under - 9-16

Total 269-247-7

Line Movement Predictions (counts if the line closes 15 points from my average bet, otherwise it's a push) - 157-85

Also a lot of props and live bets I don't keep close track of. Up 19u on those.

+94 units total

7.3% roi

 

[Shoulder]

Well I started betting MMA a bit more serious this year. It's still pocket money but I bet not to be rich but because it's super fun. The money I could lose but I just love the excitement and feelings of joy winning brings.

I in the beginning I was betting a lot of props, rounds and big parlays, but changed it to upping my unit size to a 100 instead of 20, so it still hurts a little bit to lose. This makes me chose my plays better and be less willing to make stupid props bet. I still like them, just fewer.

Had a few good event, some bad, but overall this is my curve for the year. Didn't record earlier but I made small winnings as well.

I'm looking to keep it up next year, keep finding my plays and trust my gut.

I'm mostly playing ML of fighters above 1.60 or so, or O/U, I don't think it's worth the juice on lower fights (Thank you Cruz for reminding me). Singles, rarely doubles or more except some crazy parlays at 20.00 and above odds. Love some crazy underdog odds and trying to stay away for Bellator and WSOF, while Invicta has worked out great. Sometimes tail the guys in the boxing thread...

I love the live betting, but I keep it very small since I watch the fights in the middle of the night and my judgement seems to be clouded at 05.00 with no sleep.

Look forward to another year with you guys!

 

[Sham5916910]

I will make a more detailed post in a couple of days when back at work. My spreadsheet isnt nearly as informative as it could be but as most you know my main bet is normally a two man parlay sometimes just someone straight. Ive kept a record of that over the past 23 events but my spreadsheets at work.

Cant list my unit profit as i havent tracked my lb and prop record, plus ive adjusted my unit size each time my br grew. But i won what id consider life changing money (deep deep into five figures) especially if i can replicate it over the next 3/4 years. Im defo serious about doing this for a living in 4 years when i should be sorted financially. If i can avoid limits which hopefully i will with how i now bet and the increasing popularity of exchanges (not as a tout just for myself) i think theres a good chance.

 

[Oblivian]

I have no idea where I am exactly because I made so many cash outs but I think i ended up around 10-12k profit. The end of 2016 wasnt good for me. Had few break even events plus few losing events. Around summer i was killing it tho and made the most money. I hit so many sweet parlays. I think im gonna try to do less stupid parlays this year.

What is your strategy with your bet sizing? I noticed you bet the same amount on each fight regardless of odds. For example, you could bet $300 on someone at +110 and then $300 on someone at -250. I realize you may have more on the guy at -250 since he's in your parlay (which seem to be 3+ in the parlay). I think you'd be better off sizing your singles on who you are more confident. If you are going to continue to do parlays as well for your more confident picks, I'd break it up into a few doubles (and maybe triples) rather than these large 4+ teamers. Just my opinion.

 

[Oblivian]

I kept track of my results on every single bet back from 2009 with ROI. I stopped a few events back as it's not really worth the trouble anymore. My ROI was pretty low this year for sure, but definitely in the positive. My best results were in the previous years with a smaller roster. It's so hard to get a gauge on all of the fighters now and I do not watch any tape at all. I'm going off memory on everything and I drink during some of the events too so that can get difficult. I still enjoy having a bet on each fight, but there is no doubt that hurts me. I'm going to try to be more careful on sizing on those bets vs. sizing on what I'm more comfortable with. I'm still hesitant with that though as I have events where my most confident play loses (example Cruz this weekend).

 

[Joseph Budden]

First full calendar year taking this seriously and its become my favorite hobby ever lol. Started last Jan with a $900 bankroll I had built from $130 deposit, end this year at $11,400 and change. Learned so much over this year, and still feel like im always getting better. Had some posts back in November about analyzing my game after being at a roadblock in bankroll for a few months, and I had $5,700 at that time so feels like that was a big turning point for me. After that parlay I posted in the 207 thread, my ny resolution is to hit one of these batshit parlays ive come close to a few times now lol but looking forward to what I can do with all i've learned and a 5 figure bankroll to play with now. This sections has unquestionably been a big help to the success

 

[Officer_Brown]

What is your strategy with your bet sizing? I noticed you bet the same amount on each fight regardless of odds. For example, you could bet $300 on someone at +110 and then $300 on someone at -250. I realize you may have more on the guy at -250 since he's in your parlay (which seem to be 3+ in the parlay). I think you'd be better off sizing your singles on who you are more confident. If you are going to continue to do parlays as well for your more confident picks, I'd break it up into a few doubles (and maybe triples) rather than these large 4+ teamers. Just my opinion.

My strategy is pretty simple. I bet on straight winner. No over unders etc or any of that complicated shit. I don't play juiced favorites (unless parlays [smolka/santos])I dont play lower lines than TJ dillshaw had vs lineker In every card I try to push down my inner luca fury and pick 2-4 underdogs to win. Statistics show that if there is 10 fights on a card that usually 2-3 dogs will win. I just spread out 300 on everyone just to keep it simple and not to overthink. I like to add up to 2 parlays. But I agree with you that I should break my large parlays into doubles or triples. There were too many times where i predicted just one fight incorrectly and it killed my parlay. So no more large parlays for me this year.

 

[iGnP]

Wasn't doing as well as I was in previous years. Looked over my bets and saw I was forcing too many plays so I can have action. Since scaling back on # of plays, I'm a bit closer to past year's results. Also gonna refrain from any MMA that's not in the UFC, I think it's an absolute crapshoot to be completely honest. If you can consistently make money betting on WSOF and Bellator, well, I tip my hat off to you

 

[Buddy Brown]

2016 was the first year I opened a separate bank account just for MMA betting. Deposited exactly £1,000 and I'm sitting at about £9000 with some change right now and am waiting for more to withdraw from a few books. No idea how many units that actually is but I have posted my bets for every event since joining this forum in like August along with my results afterwards.

2017 will be my first year of tracking my bets properly and it will be on an online portfolio where everyone on this forum can see them (much less time consuming than spreadsheets). Now that I have a nice unit size I'm really going to take this seriously. Like JB said, this is my favourite hobby of mine and it's clear that I have a knack for it and there's good money to be made. I've made a lot of mistakes and learned so many do's and don't's this year (I'll list them off the top of my head below). This forum has helped me a lot and I'm excited to cash bets with you all.

Do's and Don'ts:

Do's:

- Straight bets instead of "fighter wins by x props". I've been burned too many times trying to get cute and thinking a fighter can't win a certain way ie: "there's no way x gas tank holds up enough to win a decision, so just play his KO line!" Keep it simple.

- Not being lazy and just trusting what others say... Watch tape! From now on I'm not going to bet a fight if I didn't have time to watch tape on it and form my own opinion. MMA media and YouTube video makers are clueless for the most part and their predictions hold no weight whatsoever. Sure you can listen for different perspectives, but always trust your OWN gut and opinions.


Don'ts:

- Round robins. I've won a few, don't get me wrong, but forcing them with props I don't even like on certain events just for action has definitely eaten away some profit. They're just not for me. I'll probably do one hail mary lotto ticket parlay each event just for fun for each event but only with very small stakes and only with bets I actually like.

- Parlays with 3 or more legs. Cyborg/Nelson/Santos was probably my worst bet of the year. Too juiced. No value. No more. Rookie mistake.

- I learned this a long time ago, but stop thinking fighters are locks. Anything can happen. ONLY bet when you think there's a better chance of winning than the odds imply after watching tape (ie, don't be an action junkie). Never add a -500 to a bet just to "boost the odds". One of the biggest rookie mistakes ever.

- My personal biggest don't - reading too much into the "mental game". Robin Black had a great point in one of his latest vids. At the end of the day, it's fighting. We get blinded too much by the BS promotion and gossip. Thinking Cody would fight Cruz emotionally (overextending, missing, gassing and so on) then doing the complete opposite was a HUGE wakeup call for me. Even though I don't regret my Cruz bet because there was no evidence on tape that Cody could do what he did, I read way too much into the mental side of the fight and got burned for it.

That's all I can think of. Let's kill it this year boys. Peace.

 

[mkess101]

Was a very good 2016 for me. I don't track ROI (probably should but honestly I spend too much time on capping anyway and this for me is about having fun.) Yes I want to make profit but I'm not betting life changing sums. I end the year with my BR 22% more than I started and I cannot complain about that. I made some mistakes for sure. Honestly, the ones I regret the most are when I win but don't trust my gut and go heavier on certain bets. The one that really irks me that stands out is not putting like 8-10u on Gall rd 1 vs CM Punk. I literally KNEW how that fight would play out. KNEW it. (As much as we can know anything in this sport). And while I profited a lot from it, I should have profited about 3x what I did. Just one example.

You guys are absolutely VITAL to me in terms of info, analysis, spotting lines, etc. Shit I think it was @cCrown that pointed out the Cody dec line being +1400 or better (if wasn't him, whoever did thank you!). I hit it and it honestly salvaged that fight for me. I had a lot on Dom but ended up okay.

Anyway, you guys are awesome. Hope 2017 is a great year for us all.

 

[Sham5916910]

To add to the dont's: dont bet on wmma unless its jj.

Also and im not doubting this at all as it happened to me three times in past four months. But how the fuck has everyone in here whos come close to to a mega payout from a lotto ticket missed it by one leg? When the fuck is one of us going to hit?

 

[Buddy Brown]

To add to the dont's: dont bet on wmma unless its jj.

Also and im not doubting this at all as it happened to me three times in past four months. But how the fuck has everyone in here whos come close to to a mega payout from a lotto ticket missed it by one leg? When the fuck is one of us going to hit?

I've hit a LOT of WMMA dogs this year, and some really good ones. Avoiding favs unless it's JJ for sure though.

 

[Sham5916910]

I've hit a LOT of WMMA dogs this year, and some really good ones. Avoiding favs unless it's JJ for sure though.

Thats what i should have said dog only unless jj. Only the other week i hit pereira dec +1000 after r1 for example

 

[piglord]

i know i'm up this year but have no idea by how much. i've just started tracking my bets which i think will help me a lot. as that adage goes, "what can be measured can be managed".

also, having to write down my bets will keep me accountable and hesitant to do completely stupid shit (such as hammering sage northcutt to recover from my irene aldana loss).

i think the most important lesson i've learned this year is it's okay to take a loss on any night, it's long term progress that matters. it's never worth throwing big bucks unless you've thoroughly analysed a fight and are confident in your position. i've had some recklass tendencies in 2016 and i think whiskey and gambling are not a good mix. gonna try to be close to sober from now on.

i'm also going to try and get into live betting since everyone seems to be making a fortune except for me. other than that, i'm sticking with my parlay style for 2017. i know i'm good at this, i just need to improve my discipline.

let's crush 2017!

edit: another thing i want to phase out... sometimes i start counting my cash and thinking about what i'm going to do with it before the bet has even won. if things go wrong, this makes me feel like i've lost something and i become more inclined to chase. i need to keep it cold and emotionless moving forward.

 

[rille31]

Awesome year for me, life changing money for sure but my roi is propably crap (compared to my profits) as I bet a shit load of money each event at like 10+ bookies.

I want to withdraw a nice 5 figure amount but I know Im going to be limited when I do and I dont really need the money so I just keep going as long as I can

 

[LEMONZEST]

Glad to hear most of yall had a good year. 2016 was an exercise in frustration for me as far as bankroll goes. I started last year and turned 200 into about 2k. I am currently sitting at 2k but i reloaded for a few hundy so its an overall losing year ( damn it!!!).

Its frustrating to know after a year of "work" its a net negative. Of course there were many highs and lows and lots of learning so i cant complain too much. I have 2k to start the new year which allows me a 20 dollar unit size.

I actually had a good year but seemed that every time i had a "lock" and loaded up that person lost. Most of my small day to day plays were good.

Aldana
Hunt
Cruz

Those 3 losses killed all my profits for the year. Respek to JB for great ROI and massive buff to the BR.

 

[Kimb0ftw]

Awesome year for me, life changing money for sure but my roi is propably crap (compared to my profits) as I bet a shit load of money each event at like 10+ bookies.

I want to withdraw a nice 10 figure amount but I know Im going to be limited when I do and I dont really need the money so I just keep going as long as I can

Think you might be confusing terminology here, 10 figure amount would be a billion dollars....

As for me im new here but I started betting UFC 205, been watching UFC on and off since my college days and that was probably near 10 years ago now

So far im up 20u thanks to the help of this and the advice venues over on reddit. mostly do my own research but everyone has very useful input here so happy to read what some of you guys have to say

 

[BluntTrauma21]

2016 was a pretty shitty year for me in my personal life and it definitely affected my betting life as a result as well. I lost focus, started caring less and got lazy with my studying and br management.Don't have the numbers in front of me but it's been one of my worst years I've had in a pretty long time.

Just did a shitty job as an overall capper/bettor and it cost me in the long run. Annoying b/c I've been doing this for years and I know better than to half ass this shit and make the mistakes I made but it's a new year now and I'm in a better place so whatever. Past is the past, good or bad so moving on is the only option.

The things I've been doing wrong are clear and they're pretty simple things to fix so I think this new year will be a nice bounce back so looking forward to that. Anyway hope most of you guys had a nice 2016 and hope everyone will have a good 2017.

Realize this is a somewhat depressing post so to make up for it: bewbs

Spoiler

big ones. Big bouncy ones.