Originally Posted by theheater
yeah i agree machida will try the same strategy but i dont know why youd make the other 2 assumptions or even see them as likely
1) he will fall behind on the scorecards early. weidman has been shown to be exceptionally effective early in fights. machida to come flying out of the gates vs hendo, davis, or rampage either. other than a foot sweep with like 3 seconds left vs hendo i think machida might have been behind at the end of the first round in all 3 fights
2) he will make the same mistake bader did. baders bull charge might have been the biggest mental meltdown of any current top 10 fighter. hendo, rampage, davis, moose, etc didnt have any sort of mental meltdown.
weidman stood infront of anderson in his first ever title fight and was being taunted by what everyone was saying was the greatest of all time and pretty much a wizard on the feet. weidman pushed forward in a calculated and composed manner. didnt get hit and kept landing. people forget that weidman kept landing solid shots that fight and wasnt being hit, long before the ko came
I agree that round one will likely go to Weidman. I don't see him getting the takedown after that though.
In regards to the striking I think Maia, Sonnen & Weidman highlight the difference the takedown threat can have on an outcome. Maia handled Sonnen within a round & outstruck Weidman for large portions of that bout. Anderson struggled with both.
Machida doesn't have the same level of striking as Anderson but he does fight in a which which dramatically bolsters his TDD. IMO and this is subjective, Chris doesn't have a great gas tank. He cuts big weight & that has it's disadvantages.
Weidman will get Machida down in the first & IMO if he doesn't finish him he loses. Regarding the Bader conclusion, I feel a fighter can sense when they are losing a hold on a bout. If Weidman tires like I think he will he may get aggressive if he doesn't feel a decision is on the cards.
He finished Anderson via strikes in the first bout, but he also did it in very sloppy fashion - In a fashion which would have seen him heavily countered had Anderson maintained focus during that period of the fight.