I actually am leaning MJ in this fight because Tibau is the exact type of wrestler he's had success in thwarting. He's not an athletic guy for the division like Madadi and Jury were.
However, because it kind of plays into his hands stylistically, and he'd only be on a 2-fight win streak, which followed a decisive 2-fight losing streak against fighters nowhere near the top 10/contendership, I don't think a win here should thrust him into that type of match, yet.
How about he beat a very good striker or athletic grappler/wrestler before he moves up to contenders/top 10's. Taco Gomi, Jamie Varner, Edson Barboza, Jorge Masvidal, Bobby Green, Matt Wiman, etc.; any of these would suffice.