I see this fight looking a lot like either Weidman/Machida or Sonnen/Silva 1. Anything can happen in a fight but I think the questions that will dictate the outcome are pretty straight forward:
How easy will Cormier be able to get him down?
What punishment does Cormier sustain while attempting to take him down?
If he gets Jones down, how quickly will Jones pop back up?
What will happen in the clinch? Will it be Jones vs Glover all over again?
I see 4 likely scenarios happening:
1. Cormier with a quick finish
2. Fight ending because of cut or injury
3. Cormier domination for 5 rounds
4. Cormier domination for 3-4 rounds and then Jones turns it on in the championship rounds and does/does not get the finish (this is where the Sonnen/Silva and Weidman/Machida analogy comes in).
I'm inclined to give Cormier the nod because like Weidman, Cormier has always been a winner and is a smart fighter. Sonnen, as Lindland said, put in the work, had the skills but never had the heart of a champion. Either way, I could all but guarantee this fight is gonna be talked about for years and years and I much rather it over Gus.