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Old 02-10-2014, 11:59 AM   #31
cumafish

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyFatass View Post
Rory MacDonald lost to Condit and Lawlor, so he should be on your list as well.
So what title has Rory won?
At least read the topic before posting.
This was a nice observation TS.
Eventually someone besides Serra will break through.

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Old 02-10-2014, 12:25 PM   #32
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Jeez people - you guys are pretty harsh.

This statistic is junk? The trend is broken?

A statistic is in fact quite predictive in this case. Based on the data, chances are if you have a fighter who loses 3 times in the UFC, he's never getting the gold.

And the trend...is still a trend. If stock prices increase every week for a year other than 1 week, you still have a pretty consistent trend.


I find this pretty interesting - nice observation TS.

Agreed. Don't understand all the harsh criticism. Anyone who is a betting man would appreciate this information.

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Old 02-10-2014, 12:31 PM   #33
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My hypothesis: winning the belt is generally all about getting on a 3+ winning streak, fighters who don't get on winning streaks don't win the belt. Unless you have a shitload of UFC fights, 3+ losses generally means you've been trading wins and losses which means no title shot and no belt.

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Old 02-10-2014, 12:39 PM   #34
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So, to clarify:

No one, BESIDES MATT SERRA, has ever won the UFC belt for THE FIRST TIME, after recording 3 LOSSES IN THE UFC.

Is that the actual statistic now?

Thanks for doing the work TS. Great thread.

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Old 02-10-2014, 12:40 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by dbsh510 View Post
My hypothesis: winning the belt is generally all about getting on a 3+ winning streak, fighters who don't get on winning streaks don't win the belt. Unless you have a shitload of UFC fights, 3+ losses generally means you've been trading wins and losses which means no title shot and no belt.
It would be interesting to see how many people with 3+ losses have got a shot and failed.

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Old 02-10-2014, 12:46 PM   #36
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Hendricks and Lawler. One of them will be the champ.




Edit: I thought it was 2 losses. Either way Lawler could still win it.

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Old 02-10-2014, 01:41 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appelkick View Post
So, to clarify:

No one, BESIDES MATT SERRA, has ever won the UFC belt for THE FIRST TIME, after recording 3 LOSSES IN THE UFC.

Is that the actual statistic now?

Thanks for doing the work TS. Great thread.
Yes thank you. While I couldn't add that all in the title, I did make a small adjustment to clarify things a little.

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Old 03-24-2014, 07:25 PM   #38
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Since making this topic, URIJAH FABER and ROBBIE LAWLER both had a chance to break the trend but were defeated.

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Old 03-24-2014, 07:35 PM   #39
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Good thread that highlights how dumb some sherdogers are.
Interesting stat TS gw

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Old 03-24-2014, 07:38 PM   #40
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Brendan Shaub is soon going to shut that stat right down.


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