There have been multiple threads on this one. I've already explained that Jones will lose to sonnen by arm triangle in the 3rd or win by decision. Jones doesn't have the ground defense that sonnen has and the chin of sonnen is the best we've seen in the sport which will allow him to take jones down with ease after he eats a few blows.
Chael is gonna get in there and freeze like frank mir. He will realize he has no chance for a takedown and any stand up success will be impossible. He will be in defense mode from the start, just buying his time until Jones finishes him, probably in the first round.