If he can get a title fight against Aldo straight after Diamond, then I think he has about a 30% chance. (Its possible since Aldo has beaten everyone above Diamond)
Otherwise, if he gets Frankie or Mendes, I think he'll lose and take a further 1-2 years to fight for the belt.
He will get it eventually, unless he is struck by the Faber curse.
Fedor's will, Louis' boxing, Gracie's Jiu jitsu, Jones' Reach, Mendes' wrestling, McGregor's swag.
Pending ACCOUNT BET WITH GrindingANARCHY
Aldo vs Mendes 2. WAR MENDES!!!!