At this point with Nog's chin being as tested as it has and his recent submission losses I really believe that this fight borderlines on a toss up. Nelson has been in there with some of the toughest and strongest opponents the entire sport has to offer and at least made it to the final bell. I can't even picture Nog doing that anymore.
I would like it if Nog got a KO but it's pretty unlikely. Nelson will be hard to take down and submit. Basically, that equates to them having a slug fest and in reality that does favor Nelson.
"He's an excellent little boxer for you know, for a little Japanese guy but uh you know, he's fuck, he's fucking doing some little hadouken fucking punch in there to me." -Nick Diaz