I've got a couple plays on MFC tonight. Extremely tiny plays just for action. I'm playing Maramo, Alvey, Swofford, and a parlay of Novaes + Hackard + Zentgraf. If any of the 4 plays hit, I'm around break even.
ok, my quick breakdowns, tell me where i'm wrong on these?
Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
barao-mcdonald: mcdonald pretty much needs to land a big right hand, and it won't be easy. barao has way more diverse striking, much better groundgame, and overall equal wrestling. he's also proven he can go hard 5 rounds. barao deservingly large favorite.
poirier-swanson: i think people are underestimating dustin a little on the feet. i think the wrestling is close. poirier is better on the ground. i DO think if it is standing for 15 mins, cub has the edge, but not THAT big of an edge. either guy with +odds has value in a close fight.
diabate-manuwa: diabate has a lot of value at +200ish. he's better on the ground and showed against griggs he'll take it there and go for a sub, which we never would've seen from da snake years ago. why wouldn't he try to do that w/manuwa?? manuwa has HUUUUGE power and even tho diabate's never been ko'd (besides shogun soccer kicks years ago), he's got a chance to early. i think diabate is a very live dog, both on feet and on mat.
nelson-santiago: santiago has the edge standing, but always have to worry about his chin. they're comparable in wrestling. both elite on ground, but nelson on another level. unlikely to get a finish, but should control and get a W similar to maia, potentially.
jimmo-te huna: jimmo will fight tentatively and try to stay away from te huna's power, especially in round 1. te huna tends to slow down. jimmo won't necessarily go for the kill, though, even if te huna is gassed. it might be a close decision, and there's value on jimmo.
mills-riddle: mills has definitive striking edge, period. riddle's got a better wrestling/groundgame, BUT not by a ton. i think people are overestimating riddle's takedowns and mills' takedown defense. mills can win via ko or decision, riddle can virtually only win via decision. and i think people are crazy if they are BANKING on riddle to fight smartly. WHY would you assume that?
etim-forte: forte does nothing well. he's ok everywhere. etim is way better on the feet (especially at range), and has geat subs. forte's only realistic chance is to wall and stall or get takedowns and avoid subs if he can from top.
sass-castillo: people know where i stand here. castillo does have a standup edge, but not by THAT much. he's predictable on the feet and really only has a good right hand. he is a wrestler and he takes guys down if they give it to him, he's always proven that. and he's absolutely F*cked on the ground. sass will sub him from bottom, or if sass is able to get a td? castillo is going to get gnp'd and subbed, bigtime. CAN casitllo land a big punch? yes. CAN he outwrestle (by keeping it standing) and win a decision? yes. but he has to do one of those things and it's gonna be really hard to do, because sass forces the ground everytime he fights. castillo will be no different. this WILL hit the ground.
grispi-ogle: grispi can sub anyone in the first round. he's really dangerous early. as we know, though, he tends to fade physically and mentally in later rounds, whereas ogle simply won't. ogle isn't good at anything. he's got *ok* strikes and *ok* ground etc.. but he give up unless he's got no escape from a sub etc. grispi catching him early i think is the most likely scenario, but the longer the fight goes, the better ogle's chances are. likely has to win a decision, though.
nedkov-watson: look i'm just not sure here. nedkov should be better at 185 than 205, and he's a powerhouse. he's sloppy, he's fairly predictable, but he's tough to deal with especially in the first 5 mins. he could ko or get easy takedowns against cage against watson. but i'm VERY concerned he might gas after the first. he did at 205, and he probably will after his biggest weight cut. the longer the fight goes, the better it is for watson.
lee-tezuka: this is a funny one to me. tezuka is a glorified lay and prayer in my estimation. lee is pretty darn good on the feet and has some pretty darn good submissions, especially from his back.. but he's a little susceptible to takedowns.. and i think tezuka might be able to lay and pray for 15 mins here.. i am actually considering a bet on him, which makes me wanna vomit. hate lnp'ers.
gomez-harris: honestly the fight i'm the least sure of (really the last 3 all are). i think harris might have some value, as they're pretty darn similar fighters.. but gomez might just bet better, if only a little bit, in every area. i think harris makes more mistakes, too, and that could cost him.
where am i wrong?
Here's my quick b/d's:
Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
I'm on Tezuka for the same reasons you mentioned. I've actually never been that impressed with Lee and the fact that he susceptible to td's like you said convinces me he'll be on his back for most of the fight. I really like Tezuka at these odds, I could even see him getting a sub at some point.
We've talked about Sass/Castillo plenty before and I'm with you 100%. I feel like I have a very good read on Danny from watching him over the years and Sass is just a horrible matchup for him imo.
Nedkov is another who's nothing special imo. Big and strong, can wrestle a bit, and has some power. Watson however has never been ko'd, he's more technical on the feet, and will undoubtedly have a cardio advantage in the second half of the fight. I'll probably put a medium sized bet on Watson b/c I just think he's a the better fighter overall.
Took Poirier at +125, either guy that high is a good play like you said. I favor Grispi at pick em but I'm happy with Ogle at +150, I wouldn't be surprised if either guy won this, I only favor Grispi a little.
with you on Mills, I think his line is a bit high but Riddle is Riddle and he can't play around with Che on the feet like he tends to get away with against other fighters. Still undecided about Te Huna and Manuwa fights, think both guys can get early finishes but wouldn't be surprised if they fade big time and blow it.
Etim should murder Forte imo and Barao is just too much for Mcdonald right now imo. I like Useless b/c I think his grappling can carry him to a win here, also I think he's got a an advantage on the feet even though neither guy is anything special in that area.
I like this card for betting but it's one of those cards where if I'm wrong on some of these pick ems then it'll get pretty ugly, lol. Hopefully a couple dogs and the parlays pull through.
"Larry Holmes kicked me and punched me!" - Trevor Berbick