Judah vs Garcia - OFFICIAL -

[LogicalInsanity]

Originally Posted by consortium11

I'd be hesitant to bet on Judah regardless of the odds.

Judah's a fighter who on paper always has a chance going into bouts with top opposition. He's fast, he's got power, he's technically solid, he's got a fairly decent chin, when he's in the mood has a good workrate, has a devastating uppercut and has about as much high profile experience as anyone going today.

But with all that said, what's his record in bouts against genuinely top opposition? 2-6? A split decision against a prime DeMarcus Corley and a stoppage of Cory Spinks against stoppages against Khan, Cotto and Tszyu and decision loses to Clottey, Mayweather and Spinks in their first bout. And it's been eight years since that win over Spinks.

It's counter-intuitive to say, but Judah is actually one of the most consistent fighters out there. Against solid or worse opposition he normally looks good and rarely loses (the Baldomir loss being the only real example of it). But against the top echelon of fighters he falls. And I think Garcia is in that top echelon of fighters.

Judah's return to 140lbs has been fairly successful. He looked good in destroying Paris? Yes he did. But there's nothing on Paris' record or viewable in his fights to show him as being any more than a decent, but not special and untested, prospect. He looked great in destroying Jose Armando Santa Cruz... but Santa Cruz has never been anything special and is still living off the fact that he had a controversial bout with Casamayor a few years back. He took a while to get going against Mabuza but eventually finished in style. Two caveats here. The first is that as his results before and after have shown Mabuza isn't that great and got the bout off the back of a strange non-performance by Holt. The second is that this was the Pernell trained Zab (the two have now split as far as I know), meaning Judah is unlikely to attempt to replicate the evasive counter-punching style he put on in that bout. And then he got blown out by Khan... which follows the pattern set by the rest of his career of beating the lower level but losing to the top.

There's one bout I haven't mentioned and it's an interesting one. The first thing that makes his bout with Lucas Martin Matthysse so intriguing is that I thought he was lucky to win. I didn't think it was quite the robbery other did but still, I think Judah was very fortunate to get his hand raised. The second is that I'm still not sold on how good Matthysse really is. He's clearly immensely powerful, gifted with a strong chin and if you stand in front of him and trade he'll likely smash you to pieces. But he's crude, slow of foot and not particularly fast of hand. The wins he's had on paper have all been over past-their best and/or undersized and/or never quite were boxers. He was unlucky in both the Judah and Alexander bouts... but to look at the Alexander one in particular he did no better than Kotelnyk (who was only ever really solid, not good at world level)... and Alexander was completely dead at the weight.

The third intriguing point is that this was the sort of bout where you'd expect Judah to break apart mentally. He has a rugged customer in front of him, a man throwing bombs who he can't hold off, can't hurt... and who dropped him. Yet whether you think he won or not, he didn't mentally break in the way he has in other bouts.

A new dawn for Judah?

No, because two bouts later he was lying on the floor screaming that he'd been low blowed rather than get to his feet to avoid being counted out.

Same old Judah.

Garcia's made a believer out of me. Going into the Khan bout I thought he was good but not anything more, too slow and too limited to pick Khan off and lacking the dedication to getting inside to exploit Khan there. His record was nothing special: Morales was old, Holt was past his best and refused to pull the trigger, Campbell was old, past his best and undersized, Mike Arnaoutis never lived up to his early potential and Garcia nearly lost to the distinctly average Ashley Theopane.

But then he landed that hook.

As others have said, Garcia may be a one trick pony but by god it's a damn good trick. He landed it twice in the two Morrales bouts... and as the Maidana bout showed, despite his age Morrales could still avoid wild swinging hooks. Khan's speed and aggression has meant that most fighters struggle to counter him despite his poor defence, footwork and balance... but Garcia picked him off from virtually the first exchange. It's not just the counter-hook itself, it's the subtle defence that goes with it... taking the head just off centre-line, the twist of the body, the repositioning of the feet. He draws the exchange and then he counters.

But let's caveat that again. When he knocked out Morrales with the hook Morrales was even older and fatter than he was in the first bout. And despite dropping Khan hard it still took Garcia a while to get him out of there... and he was obliged by Khan deciding to try to Gatti his way out of trouble.

Where was the devestating hook against Holt? Against Campbell? Even in the first Morrales bout, while it changed the complexion of the bout, Morrales still made it to the final bell.

A note of caution then on Garcia. He may have looked spectacular (in doses at least) against Khan and Morrales, but both had vulnerabilities.

So where does that leave the pair?

If Garcia can't land his hook he looks distinctly ordinary with no real telling attributes. Limited power, mediocre workrate, fairly decent defence, average at best hand speed. Take away that counter hook and Garcia's tools make him good but little more. If Judah has any sense he and his team will be spending damn near the whole camp drilling how to avoid being in position for that hook to be thrown. On paper Judah has the speed of hand and foot, reflexes and power to simply pot shot Garcia from the outside... aided by around 4'' of reach.

But does Judah have the discipline to do that? Can he avoid being drawn into exchanges? And if he is drawn into exchanges are his reflexes and head movement good enough to avoid being countered? Does he rely on them too much and put himself into danger?

And if he is hit, if he is wobbled, if he is put down, does he calmly get back to his feet and stick to the plan or does he mentally fall apart?

I think he loses. I think he can't avoid exchanging and in one of those exchanges he gets hit hard. And I think it breaks him. If he makes it back up I think he either panics and leaves himself open or hesitant and unwilling to do what needs to be done. He's 35 now, his prime is passing him by and I think the Judah who has spent the last eight years getting near to the top of the mountain before falling down is the only Judah that's left.

I wouldn't bet on him regardless of the odds.

But I wouldn't bet on Garcia either. He's got his limitations... and without the hook those are pretty severe. And you never know. Judah may finally put it all together.

Jesus...

thanks for responding Consort. I'll be sure to peruse this again before I decide to make another wager on Zab.

[Seano]

Originally Posted by LogicalInsanity

Jesus...

thanks for responding Consort. I'll be sure to peruse this again before I decide to make another wager on Zab.

WTF, its the same thing we've all been telling you with more words.

[LogicalInsanity]

Originally Posted by Seano

WTF, its the same thing we've all been telling you with more words.

I took what you had to say in consideration as well Seano...you were right about Garcia vs Salido after all.

I already put 50 on Judah...I was just contemplating putting a larger wager on him.

[Sunfish]

Originally Posted by LogicalInsanity

I took what you had to say in consideration as well Seano...you were right about Garcia vs Salido after all.

I already put 50 on Judah...I was just contemplating putting a larger wager on him.

Don't do it!

[consortium11]

Originally Posted by Sunfish

Don't do it!

I can see the logic of a small bet on Judah at good odds simply because he does have all those physical tools.

But it would have to be a really small bet at really good odds... his performances against top level opposition don't merit anything else.

As I say, he's actually been remarkably consistent over the last decade or so. It's not as if he's been beating a top fighter one week and then losing to an average one the next. He beats those average fighters... and often beats them well... but then loses to the best.

[Wanderlei4Life]

Betting on Judah now is the same as betting on Mirko. All that past glory and flair is long gone and is all emotional attachment now.

Trust me, I know.

I put money on Mirko 3 times and lost all 3 times. Mir, Schaub, and Big C fight.

[LogicalInsanity]

Originally Posted by consortium11

I can see the logic of a small bet on Judah at good odds simply because he does have all those physical tools.

But it would have to be a really small bet at really good odds... his performances against top level opposition don't merit anything else.

As I say, he's actually been remarkably consistent over the last decade or so. It's not as if he's been beating a top fighter one week and then losing to an average one the next. He beats those average fighters... and often beats them well... but then loses to the best.

This is the only reason why I'm entertaining the thought of putting a hundred or so on Judah.

When the fight was first announced, I had Judah maybe at +200 or +250 tops..

when it came out as +525, I was like WHAT THE FUCK!?!?!?

as you said, Judah looks great against good and above average opponents...but against stellar competition his folds...

In a way, he is the Michael Bisping of Boxing. That being said, I thought he looked fucking fantastic against Vernon paris. (granted, not a good or great opponent) Judah has the tools to pull of his upset...he still has the speed and boxing acumen.

I'm not completely sold on Garcia yet...knocking out an ancient Morales and reckless Khan hasn't convinced me yet...

Garcia has one money punch...and I would have to assume that judah would prepare for that. This will be his last shot at super stardom...

I have 50 on Judah...thinking about putting 150 more to win 1050.

[ZroC]

yeah ... Judah's not winning this.l

[Seano]

Garcia is just too tough, too good on the inside and too relentless for a guy like Judah. Judah will look like a star for 3 or 4 rounds then the fight will start to change and by the 9th round Judah will be in survival mode.

[Seano]

Might look a lot like his fight with Cotto now that I think about it.