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Old 09-28-2009, 01:57 AM   #71
We_Todd_Did

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Originally Posted by MusterX View Post
Global Warming does in fact happen, so does Global Cooling. The question here is do I believe humans are causing the planet to warm outside of its natural ebb and flow. My answer to you is it doesn't matter.

The reason it doesn't matter is because humans are notoriously slow to act and often act inappropriately. The population of the planet is ever expanding, the demand for energy sources is also ever expanding.

Do you honestly think if we all drive hybrid cars and buy environmentally friendly light bulbs then the poles won't melt? Assuming the South Americans stop chopping down the rainforrest, and big business stops polluting all over the planet, and products stop being almost exclusively packaged in plastic, and assuming the Chinese and Indians go along with the "big plan to save the Earth".........and on and on...it never ends.

We are a destructive race. All one has to do is look at a few history books. So I say to you, if the planet is heading for destruction due to human pollution, we are already fucked, the odds of stopping it are slim and none and slim just left town.
Defeatist attitudes like yours is a large part of what is wrong with modern society.You are weak, lacking in personal responsibility, and are basically hinder the advancement of civilization.

"We probably cant fix it anyway, so why bother?I love my V-8...yeehaw!". Pathetic.

I can't change what ignorant people like you choose to do. I can, however, do my part not to exacerbate the situation if human pollution is, in fact, contributing to changes in climate. I won't pretend to know for a fact what the primary causes are for melting polar ice caps, El Nino, etc., but what harm have I done if I'm wrong? Probably less than you will have if you are wrong.

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Old 09-28-2009, 05:08 AM   #72
Gotti McCarran
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Originally Posted by mtron929 View Post
How about looking at the anomalies for the last 150 years or so.



You'll see that the first figure in your post has a subset of the dataset from around 1997 to 2008. Pretty convenient for you to ignore the rest of the data that do not support your argument.
Oh please like the graphs from the opposing side don't always stop in 2000 like that's the last year that shows temperature records. It's avery very short term trend I give you that, but how is warming accelerating when it's been cooling for 10 years now? That makes no sense on any level and that's what I pointed out there.

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Old 09-28-2009, 07:49 AM   #73
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is this one of those threads where someone argues that everything is just fine because its cold outside? i thought i only heard that kind of logic from people in the office.

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Old 09-28-2009, 08:16 AM   #74
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Old 09-28-2009, 09:49 AM   #75
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3 years is not a meaningful "linear trend" in terms of global climate.
Even a decade is too short to really be indicative, however look at what happens over the last ten years if you graph the mean.
Internal variations and extrinsic factors introduce a lot of noise into the linear trends.
i.e. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year (1997-1998 had a massive el nino effect, internal variation) and skews short term graphing.

I know locally a lot of the "Climate Skeptics" have been harping on about "natural variablility" and "climate sensitvity".
Steve Fielding from the "Family First" (Right-wing Christian Conservative) party is a relatively prominent "Climate Skeptic" invigorated from his
"Fact Finding" trip to the US (he went to a conference at the Heartland institute).
He's now up on the latest lingo and objections of this politically manufactured "controversy". Citing studies showing "recent shifts in climate".
Mostly by Swanson and Tsonis (a legitimate study, but hardly a mainstream hypothesis).
Interesting to hear what Tsinos and Swanson themselves say about this...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle Swanson
Before delving into the paper itself, a few words about the place of our work in the global warming “debate” are in order.
A quote from the early 20th century Viennese polymath Egon Friedell (which I ran across in the wonderful book Cultural Amnesia by Clive James)
captures the situation better than any words I could ever weave;

"Electricity and magnetism are those forces of nature by which people who know nothing about electricity and magnetism can explain everything."

Substitute the words “modes of natural climate variability” for “electricity and magnetism,” and well…, hopefully the point is made.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anastasios Tsonis
I was worried that this will happen, that is why we caution in the paper that while climate shifts may be part of the
natural variability of the climate system they may be superimposed on a anthropogenic warming trend.
We mentioned that also in the MSNBC story, and this will be my answer to anybody who asks me.

I like to report on the science only. If political organizations want to pick up what they like in order to pass their point and ignore the real science,
there is nothing we can do.
http://www.uwm.edu/~kswanson/publica...037022_all.pdf

RealClimate: Warming, interrupted: Much ado about natural variability
Checking George Will: The Perils of Time Travel | The Loom | Discover Magazine

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Old 09-28-2009, 10:05 AM   #76
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Also Pain... how about resizing that HadCRUT graph...?

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Old 09-28-2009, 11:36 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Ruprecht View Post
3 years is not a meaningful "linear trend" in terms of global climate.
I don' know what you are talking about. I posted a ten year trend. It's about as meaningful as the 40 year trend from 1960 to 2000, which has been published about 4 million times. That's basically on the same type of scale in comparison to million years the earth has naturally warmed and cooled as well. When enginekid says that it's beyond doubt that the warming has accelerated and it has been cooling for 10 years that means he's wrong. If we look at the last 50 years there is almost no warming trend left either. For the last 100 years the earth has very very slightly warmed and it has warmed A LOT QUICKER than that without a rise in CO2 accompanying that warming.

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Originally Posted by Ruprecht View Post
Even a decade is too short to really be indicative,
So you do know what I posted looked at a decade? Then why the lie about it being a three year trend? It's clearly not a three year trend and you knew that when you said it was? In my mind it would make it a hell of a lot more probable that you're right, if you guys would just stick with the truth for once and make your case the way inelligent people do. You are very intelligent Ruprecht, so what's keeping you from being fair? The stuff you said before (I think it was you) about people mixing up the stratosphere and troposphere...what did that have to do with any of the posts in here? What do stories about conservatives that try to dispute global warming by saying it's been a cool day have to do with posts in here? Why construct strawman arguments like that when you are clearly right according to yourselves? There wouldn't be a need for that, now would there?

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Originally Posted by Ruprecht View Post
however look at what happens over the last ten years if you graph the mean.
That is the graph I posted. It's a negative trendline. FACT. However the IPCC keeps adjusting the temperature records of both the period we ultimately compare to as well as todays raw data readings biased towards warmth using algorithms, which they don't want to show anybody. That's another fact. I don't think they'd have to do this IF the data really supported the warming theory. That's for the satellite data. For the ground data, that there are way too few points of measurement for to even get a real picture they keep moving the measuring stations closer to urbal areas and in some cases construct stuff close to them, like power generators. That isn't really the way to go if they really wanted the best quality data possible. They don't seem to want that though. The conclusions is clear for them, they just care about those parts of the data that agree with them, just like you seem to do right now. 10 years are not a trend when it's cooling, however 10 years that show an accelerated trend for warming from 1990 to 2000 as compared to the slope from 1960 to 2000 was clear indication that we are obviously seeing increased warming due to increased industrialization of China and India among others. There was nobody saying, but wait ten years is not sufficient time to even get an idea of the real mid term trend from for some reason. Well there were bunches of people saying that back then, too, but it's the same people that today are being called warming skeptics. Back then they were idiots ignoring the facts and now they are idiots for not ignoring the same facts that used to be so important. That kind of stuff just shows how biased towards the only politically viable outcome certain people seem to be.

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Originally Posted by Ruprecht View Post
Internal variations and extrinsic factors introduce a lot of noise into the linear trends.
i.e. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year (1997-1998 had a massive el nino effect, internal variation) and skews short term graphing.
While that is true those factors that introduce noise like you say are are really part of nature. That's my point precisely. There are many factors like sun activity, distance from the sun, all kinds of feedback mechanisms, ocean current changes, cloud formation, rain fall and such that drive climate. We have tried modeling these into an encompassing climate model many times, but none of them have predicted what we really did observe. Maybe it's time to take a step back and reevaluate the early findings when rising concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were quickly correalted to the warming, which of course has been brought up in this thread as the only explanation that makes sense a lot of times. Maybe we shouldn't assume causation, while explaining away contradicting trends, studies and alternative theories by constantly readjusting the datasets to fall back in line what we should observe. but by now I guess things are way to politicised for that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruprecht View Post
I know locally a lot of the "Climate Skeptics" have been harping on about "natural variablility" and "climate sensitvity".
Steve Fielding from the "Family First" (Right-wing Christian Conservative) party is a relatively prominent "Climate Skeptic" invigorated from his
"Fact Finding" trip to the US (he went to a conference at the Heartland institute).
He's now up on the latest lingo and objections of this politically manufactured "controversy". Citing studies showing "recent shifts in climate".
Mostly by Swanson and Tsonis (a legitimate study, but hardly a mainstream hypothesis).
Interesting to hear what Tsinos and Swanson themselves say about this...
That's the same non argument enginekid keeps making. You guys will cite a supposed climate skeptic that changed his opinion, but you would ignore if I posted global warming proponents turned skeptics, which there are possibly just as many of or more. It's funny you say the controversy is politically manufactured, when in reality it's really of scientific nature with studies somewhat contradicting each other coming out monthly, the same way science has always worked. Really the consensus was politically manufactured, not the controversy. Science is always a controvery, thus the idea of theory and falsifaction for example. There is controversy in every field I have ever looked into, but of course for climate change this controversy is politically motivated? Then again I did not bring this person up, neither did anybody else in here, just like nobody talked about the person enginekid brought up in his first post I believe it was.

I opt out of posting google links agreeing with me this time.

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Old 09-28-2009, 11:40 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Winded Walrus View Post
2009: Coldest U.S. summer in recent history; 300 low-temp records set

what happened? this was supposed to be the global warming activists big summer. a left-wing president, GE funding NBC to spread climate change propaganda, a Congress controlled by Democrats. But, but UH-OH ironically we end up having the coldest summer in a long time, setting 300 records.

how could this be possible? China's population is putting thousands of cars per day on their roads, the world's carbon footprint is growing exponentially, yet this winter is expected to be one of the coldest.

I can't wait to hear the next "inconvenient lie" to explain this one
I don't know about the coldest summer in recent history. I was hot like a mofo here this year, and normally it cools down by now but we had triple digits all week last week.

Anyway, why do people even still debate this over and over again? Whether you believe in global warming or not it's still important and urgent that we reduce pollution and preserve resources.

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Old 09-28-2009, 11:58 AM   #79
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I don't know about the coldest summer in recent history. I was hot like a mofo here this year, and normally it cools down by now but we had triple digits all week last week.

Anyway, why do people even still debate this over and over again? Whether you believe in global warming or not it's still important and urgent that we reduce pollution and preserve resources.
Can you point me to where somebody said anything to the contrary in this thread please, thanks.

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Old 09-28-2009, 12:01 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Gotti McCarran View Post
Can you point me to where somebody said anything to the contrary in this thread please, thanks.
i thought you had to work for 15 hours gotti mcliesalot

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